Stage 17: Saint-Jean-de-Maurienne - Morzine
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Wow...this Tour is likely to not be decided until the final time trial. And, the top contenders, Pereiro, Kloden, Sastre, Evans, and Menchov, were within one minute of each other in the first time trial.
Because the top riders are likely to finish within a minute or two of each other at the final time trial, THIS stage is really the best opportunity to win the Tour. If any of the top contenders can finish this stage in the yellow jersey, with a two minute lead over the other guys, he has probably won the Tour. And, a contender who finishes this stage two minutes behind the yellow jersey has probably lost the Tour.
Looking into the crystal ball, it is absolutely clear that at the end of Stage 17, the guy in the yellow jersey will be Pereiro. Or Kloden. Or perhaps Saste, or Evans. Maybe Menchov...the crystal ball is getting cloudy again...
Because the top riders are likely to finish within a minute or two of each other at the final time trial, THIS stage is really the best opportunity to win the Tour. If any of the top contenders can finish this stage in the yellow jersey, with a two minute lead over the other guys, he has probably won the Tour. And, a contender who finishes this stage two minutes behind the yellow jersey has probably lost the Tour.
Looking into the crystal ball, it is absolutely clear that at the end of Stage 17, the guy in the yellow jersey will be Pereiro. Or Kloden. Or perhaps Saste, or Evans. Maybe Menchov...the crystal ball is getting cloudy again...
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All this nonsense about the stage not ending on a climb... I don't buy it. Sure, it's not the same, but there could be a VERY exciting finish because there is virtually no flats after the descent, i.e. there's nowhere to catch-up. Who wouldn't want to see Flandis cressing the Joux-Plane up three minutes and riding downhill "like [he] stole something" to pick-up more time? I don't see it happening that way, but a descent into the finish, given how close the top guys are right now promises to be very exciting!
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Unless someone has a bad day, (hereafter refered as "to Floyd", v, e.g."Man he just Floyded big time on that last climb") Sastre, Kloden, Menchov, Evans, and possibly Pereiro are very likely finishing same time tomorrow. Just a little too long from the Col Joux-Plane to Morzine for big time splits.
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Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx
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3800m of climbing... another tough day. (5000m yesterday)
I agree, the descent after the last climb is not somewhere a single rider would lose a lot of time to a pack, and could be the last opportunity for some riders to make up time.
I agree, the descent after the last climb is not somewhere a single rider would lose a lot of time to a pack, and could be the last opportunity for some riders to make up time.
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Pardon the potentially dumb question here, but aren't most riders pretty equal descending? I mean, if a group of riders crests a col with, say, a 3 minute gap on the next group, how does that trailing group close the gap? Can they descend faster somehow? Does the front group descend more cautious with a lead and the chase group get more courageous? Or do they somehow channel Il Falco's downhilling skills?
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx
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Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
Oboe guy, if its nonsense, give us an example from a modern tour where someone highly placed on GC made up significant time on the race leaders where the finish line was at least 12 k from the top of the final climb. I'm betting you've got to go back to Merckx
This has to be the most exciting sports event I have seen in a long time.
Richard
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Originally Posted by CyLowe97
Pardon the potentially dumb question here, but aren't most riders pretty equal descending? I mean, if a group of riders crests a col with, say, a 3 minute gap on the next group, how does that trailing group close the gap? Can they descend faster somehow? Does the front group descend more cautious with a lead and the chase group get more courageous? Or do they somehow channel Il Falco's downhilling skills?
Even on straight downhills though, a chasing leader peloton will rarely have a heavy good downhiller near the front to lead a chase, so not only does the chase not have as much of a speed advantage compared to flats, but more importantly has a much lower % speed advantage (73 kph chasing 70 kph, vs. 50kph chasing 45kph). Over 12km, chasing 3kph faster might just get 20-30 seconds, instead of the 70 seconds or so pelotons usually gain on flats.
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hopefully they will actually show the descent on oln. whats with them always cutting to commercial or some rider/bike profile? they seem to skip alot of it.
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Originally Posted by crankstar
hopefully they will actually show the descent on oln. whats with them always cutting to commercial or some rider/bike profile? they seem to skip alot of it.
Anyways, great coverage from Eurosport, and very intelligent commentators. Wish I could get that network here, but Direct TV doesn't seem to have it.
#13
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Here is my wild ass guess for tomorrow:
Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.
Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.
Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
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Rumour has it Landis has installed a triple for tonight!
I reckon he'll need it!
I reckon he'll need it!
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I'll take someone like hmmm a Spaniard or an Italian so how bouts Cunego, De La Fuente or Zubeldia for the stage win off of a break.
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I'll stick my neck out and make a bold prediction. . .there are not 8 minutes to be gained in this stage by anyone in the top 11 of the GC unless 10 of them are struck by lightning or some other act of divine intervention?
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Originally Posted by Hornbiker
Much better coverage than OLN: almost no commerials, no gratuitous Lance on Stage ___, 10/2 Moment, Power Descent of the Day crap. Actually I began to wish for some more commercials when I really needed to piss... but I digress.
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Originally Posted by HDTVKSS
Evans.
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Kloden, Evans, and/or Sastre need to pick up more than a minute on Oscar if they want to wear yellow in Paris. I'm looking forward to a great stage. What a fun race to watch!
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Originally Posted by Panic
Here is my wild ass guess for tomorrow:
Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.
Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
Landis gains 8 minutes in a crazy all out blitz.
Sastre takes yellow by a few seconds and its all blown up real good.
Landis to retire tomorrow with his dodgy hip as the excuse!
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It's on! Looks like a nice small, non-threatening break and the peleton is letting them go for now. Their legs must be hurting from yesterday. Many barely made it up the hill.
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Whooooo! I got eurosport.com audio... Floyd et. al just split the peloton, and I get the feeling he's riding to catch the leaders and see if he can get on the podium. This is fantastic.... so friggin' exciting. Go Floyd!
Koffee
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I can't help but root for Floyd this year, and I am PISSED THAT MY TV IS BROKEN.
Go Floyd go. Hope this isn't a wasted effort like Levi's attack yesterday.
Go Floyd go. Hope this isn't a wasted effort like Levi's attack yesterday.