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Has demand dropped?

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Has demand dropped?

Old 09-08-23, 05:40 PM
  #226  
repechage
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Originally Posted by AdventureManCO
Had a big post written out, but didn't hit 'post'.

In Avon, CO this week (had a job up there), e-bikes completely dominated people's riding choices (80-90%). Those that were on old fashioned bikes were on high-end, late model mtbs. The marketing is working, and people definitely have the 'should I make it an e-bike?' question now on their consciousness. You know, make them feel like they're saving the world.

If we think the vintage market has fallen off a cliff, just wait. We ain't seen nothing yet. And as another poster said, in the next 10-15 years, some major collections are going to flood the market - we'll have even more bikes and even less buyers.

TL;DR version: we are coming up on the greatest vintage bike buying spree we'll ever have in our lives! Get ready!
I think we are at one extreme of the demand pendulum right now. It will normalize but will shift.
the rise of index shifting as a legit classic and vintage aspect. Danger to the ClassicRendezvous crowd. Eroica also.
a category between Nova and Historica will be needed. Or promoters will lose a whole swath.
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Old 09-08-23, 06:42 PM
  #227  
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Originally Posted by repechage
I think we are at one extreme of the demand pendulum right now. It will normalize but will shift.
the rise of index shifting as a legit classic and vintage aspect. Danger to the ClassicRendezvous crowd. Eroica also.
a category between Nova and Historica will be needed. Or promoters will lose a whole swath.

Maybe the entire catalog of non-electronic shifting eventually, including every form of analog sti?
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Old 09-08-23, 07:10 PM
  #228  
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A local bicycling advocacy group (to which I belong) sent an email today to alert members about an opportunity at an upcoming town information fair: “ Visit the EV Meet Up to see e-bikes, electric cars, and other climate friendly transportation options and talk to owners about their experiences.” The future is electric.
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Old 09-08-23, 08:07 PM
  #229  
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Originally Posted by repechage
I think we are at one extreme of the demand pendulum right now. It will normalize but will shift.
the rise of index shifting as a legit classic and vintage aspect. Danger to the ClassicRendezvous crowd. Eroica also.
a category between Nova and Historica will be needed. Or promoters will lose a whole swath.

I think it really all depends. The problem with manual STI shifters, is at the end of the day, they are not really all that different a "riding" experience to the electronic shifters. But maybe, as time passes, the ubiquity of manual STI shifters will also become something novel enough to become "classic" to the CR set.

However, I think the Eroica set will need to be more open about moving from a time-frame cut-off to more a material, design and tech cutoff concept.

Modern technology has been moving so fast, and in such dramatic fashion over the last decade, that I am not sure the C&V crowd has really been able to assess what is and what is not going to be transitioned to classic. In addition, we need to face the fact that the C&V bikes historically considered so elegant and beautiful, and I am not sure most modern steel bikes, with TIG welding, will hold the same allure.
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Old 09-08-23, 10:07 PM
  #230  
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Originally Posted by AdventureManCO
Maybe the entire catalog of non-electronic shifting eventually, including every form of analog sti?
break out the magic 8 Ball.
time will tell.
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Old 09-09-23, 04:57 AM
  #231  
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I'm wondering if the E bike market influence might end up supporting C+V values, at least in the "It's a bike" market. Non "bike people" who want "a bike" will use Walmart BSO's as a price and availability base line when shopping for a used bike. If Walmart shifts it's focus to E bikes, I'm guessing it will still offer non E bikes, but will drop the cheapest options, as the E bikes will be raising the price vs feature scales median price point.

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Old 09-09-23, 07:36 AM
  #232  
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The vast majority of ‘younger’ folks think nothing at all of practically everything having some sort of battery and needing to be plugged in and charged. I wonder though, with a less than robust and resilient grid and compounding climate disasters, if some might start to rethink battery dependence a bit. I recall people huddled around generators on the corners of lower Manhattan post-Sandy, waiting for their phones to charge (don’t remember what the entrepreneurs with the gennies were charging…). Would’ve been a drag trying to keep an e-bike charged up. If a disaster knocked out the grid and disrupted fuel supply lines, I’d be glad to have a sturdy, all-human-powered bike (with racks & panniers, too).
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Old 09-09-23, 09:39 AM
  #233  
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Originally Posted by ehcoplex
The vast majority of ‘younger’ folks think nothing at all of practically everything having some sort of battery and needing to be plugged in and charged. I wonder though, with a less than robust and resilient grid and compounding climate disasters, if some might start to rethink battery dependence a bit. I recall people huddled around generators on the corners of lower Manhattan post-Sandy, waiting for their phones to charge (don’t remember what the entrepreneurs with the gennies were charging…). Would’ve been a drag trying to keep an e-bike charged up. If a disaster knocked out the grid and disrupted fuel supply lines, I’d be glad to have a sturdy, all-human-powered bike (with racks & panniers, too).

Our neighbors were renting a place in Lahaina when the fires hit. Luckily, their part of Lahaina was unaffected, but we’re stuck without power for days and only had a Tesla rental.
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Old 09-09-23, 10:33 AM
  #234  
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Originally Posted by nlerner
A local bicycling advocacy group (to which I belong) sent an email today to alert members about an opportunity at an upcoming town information fair: “ Visit the EV Meet Up to see e-bikes, electric cars, and other climate friendly transportation options and talk to owners about their experiences.” The future is electric.

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Old 09-09-23, 11:18 AM
  #235  
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Originally Posted by Het Volk
Our neighbors were renting a place in Lahaina when the fires hit. Luckily, their part of Lahaina was unaffected, but we’re stuck without power for days and only had a Tesla rental.
oh no, stuck for days with a tesla!! unless they literally rolled into the driveway with <5 miles of power left, their situation was no different than a gas powered vehicle. there are and were dozens of fully functional EV charging stations on maui during and after the fire. do you really think the gas station in lahaina was opening during and after the fire? or that everyone should have a barrel of gasoline in their garage?

EVs are actually potentially an excellent answer to a fragile grid. they’ll soon form a micro grid of their own, acting as smallish backup batteries if desired.


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Old 09-09-23, 12:03 PM
  #236  
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Originally Posted by nlerner
A local bicycling advocacy group (to which I belong) sent an email today to alert members about an opportunity at an upcoming town information fair: “ Visit the EV Meet Up to see e-bikes, electric cars, and other climate friendly transportation options and talk to owners about their experiences.” The future is electric.
Cycling advocacy groups really should be referred to as alt-transit advocacy groups. Their focus is not really on bikes, its just that bikes happen to have been the most efficiency and effective form of alternatives for commuting compared to gas powered automobiles. Their interest in the bike itself, its design and form is not really part of their general focus. I can kind of see how, the way the winds are blowing (Americans generally always want the path of lease resistance when it comes to moving their fat @sses around, and so if given an option, the option with the lease amount of pedaling wins out) they want to be out in front on this, and not trying to convince people to just ride mechanical bikes, because again, their purpose is alternative transit advocacy.
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Old 09-09-23, 02:36 PM
  #237  
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Originally Posted by mschwett
oh no, stuck for days with a tesla!! unless they literally rolled into the driveway with <5 miles of power left, their situation was no different than a gas powered vehicle. there are and were dozens of fully functional EV charging stations on maui during and after the fire. do you really think the gas station in lahaina was opening during and after the fire? or that everyone should have a barrel of gasoline in their garage?
Why are you responding so condescendingly? I think he was just relaying some facts about his neighbors situation. We all just talking man. I've kept a couple of jerry cans of gas in my garage just in case, in times past.

There is promise in e-bikes becoming viable enough to replace cars for some people but I don't think it will easily happen without major infrastructure change. It cannot keep up pace with the bike technology, for sure. If you talk to cudak888 he is a big advocate of change via the infrastructure. On my road, there is a lovely bike lane, that then gets taken up by parked cars, and once it gets to the intersection, basically has the vehicle turn lane merge right into it for turning cars, almost as if there isn't a better way to mow down cyclists.

I do get the argument about (specifically) e-bikes being better than cars in terms of impact, but that is only if people opt for a bike, or an e-bike, in place of a car. I still haven't been able to rationalize the 'feel good' aspect of 'e' anything in major infrastructure in light of the effort it takes in mining, refining, manufacturing, and one day recycling, all those batteries. In Colorado, most of our electrical power comes from coal, so every time you are charging that battery...
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Last edited by AdventureManCO; 09-10-23 at 05:28 PM.
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Old 09-09-23, 03:00 PM
  #238  
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Originally Posted by Het Volk
Cycling advocacy groups really should be referred to as alt-transit advocacy groups. Their focus is not really on bikes, its just that bikes happen to have been the most efficiency and effective form of alternatives for commuting compared to gas powered automobiles. Their interest in the bike itself, its design and form is not really part of their general focus. I can kind of see how, the way the winds are blowing (Americans generally always want the path of lease resistance when it comes to moving their fat @sses around, and so if given an option, the option with the lease amount of pedaling wins out) they want to be out in front on this, and not trying to convince people to just ride mechanical bikes, because again, their purpose is alternative transit advocacy.
When you look at their finances, you can see that while once upon a time, cycling advocacy groups got their money from cyclists, the bike companies are the primary funders and hence the advocacy is geared towards market expansion. Specialized pretty much purchased CALBIKE so when Calbike speaks to Sacramento, they speak Specialized.
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Old 09-09-23, 03:22 PM
  #239  
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Originally Posted by AdventureManCO
Why are you responding so condescendingly?
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Old 10-20-23, 01:22 PM
  #240  
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I agree ...


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Old 11-04-23, 02:53 PM
  #241  
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The Guardian newspaper- “Brexit, lack of cash, politics: has the UK cycling revolution run out of road?”
Bike sales boomed during the pandemic, but now cycle shops are going bust, sales of ebikes are sluggish and there’s a downturn in ‘active travel’



https://www.theguardian.com/lifeands...un-out-of-road

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Old 11-04-23, 07:16 PM
  #242  
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Have a look at the sheer volume of carbon gravel bikes on offer in your local classified. If it's anything like mine, there's a collapse of this market and others too. The dust always settles.
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Old 11-05-23, 03:07 AM
  #243  
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I'm somewhat of a hoarder. If i find a bike for a good price, I'll buy it. I'm 31 and I only ride old bikes. There's a bunch of different groups of vintage people. A new cyclist who is looking for a bike will most likely buy a new bike and not a 40 year old bike, especially when you can get a bike that's just a few years old for the same price.
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Old 11-05-23, 05:29 AM
  #244  
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Was on a ride with a friend who has a small shop about an hour away from me in upstate NY. We were talking about the regular emails from Soma/Merry Sales with increasingly deep discounts. He was frustrated that some of the suppliers/distributors are now offering things direct at prices less than what he paid as a shop/dealer just months ago and that he'll now end up selling at a loss. He's implied he'll probably be closing the shop- the economics just don't work.
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Old 11-05-23, 05:34 AM
  #245  
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I agree. Walked into a bike shop the other day and it was 70-80% electric bikes. What do the younger generation think of this? Are we getting lazy?
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Old 11-05-23, 06:32 AM
  #246  
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Not every person wants a carbon bike and people are still interested in the old bikes and frames that were made back then, just the prices have risen because good or great condition items are scarce and hard to find.
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Old 11-05-23, 06:39 AM
  #247  
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Originally Posted by georges1
Not every person wants a carbon bike and people are still interested in the old bikes and frames that were made back then, just the prices have risen because good or great condition items are scarce and hard to find.
The point of the thread is that old bikes and frames are being listed at prices far below those seen just a year or two ago.
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Old 11-05-23, 08:21 AM
  #248  
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Buy to ride, and be careful when you buy. Make sure it's what you want, it's the correct size, and that it is in reasonably good shape. Trying to resell something you probably shouldn't have bought isn't that easy, unless the price is low.
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Old 11-05-23, 08:27 AM
  #249  
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Originally Posted by Trakhak
The point of the thread is that old bikes and frames are being listed at prices far below those seen just a year or two ago.
I wish the sellers around me would get that message! A few bikes I've been watching (mainly for the parts) for going on 2 years now that have just been sitting and sitting and sitting (and considerably 'over priced'). But then, everything takes a while to filter out to the hinterlands...
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Old 11-05-23, 08:29 AM
  #250  
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As a further data point from an Ebay vintage bike parts seller, my sales are down 39% compared to a year ago, so demand has dropped steadily since I posted in August. The market fallout is real. I may be looking for another way to earn some money.

On the flip side you can score some fantastic vintage bikes for cheap, cheap, cheap, especially with the season ending.
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