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6 months with a powermeter - finding the avg speed is pretty darn good

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6 months with a powermeter - finding the avg speed is pretty darn good

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Old 04-27-13, 02:53 PM
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hhnngg1
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6 months with a powermeter - finding the avg speed is pretty darn good

I know firsthand of all the avg speed bashing on this forum. Conditions, wind, terrain, drafting, etc, which allegedly make avg speed MEANINGLESS.

I've been using a powermeter for the last 6 months both indoors and outdoors and it's been good stuff. Particularly for guiding indoor training (TrainerRoad), and as a recording tool for outdoor rides.

Reviewed my rides in the last 6 months (FTP + 20watts for real!) and found that the average speed metric is actually very good for me. Granted, I do mostly solo rides so I'm not drafting much, so as long as I have a rough elevation profile of the course in terms of total elevation, I can get a pretty good estimate of how avg speed compares. It's actually not bad at all.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not about to throw out my powermeter any time soon (love it) but there were surprising small issues that made it more complicated than just looking at your power number after you're done with a ride:

- Normalized Power really underweights lo efforts and hugely overweights hard efforts. I did a ride today where my average power was only 60% of what it normal is because I'm racing next week so I went easy with a group, yet my normalized power was 95% of my race effort power, likely because I put in a few very short hi-power climbs in there (under 5 minutes for sure each) and easy pedaled a lot of the ride. If you just looked at NP, you would have thought I did a hard workout today, but the total watts and avg power show that it was a cakewalk.

- Avg power is pretty decent, but for my numbers at least, isn't much more helpful than my average speed. In fact, both avg power and avg speed went up and down in tandem on my training rides of varying intensities.

- Conditions as well as the course affect power more than you might think. It's one thing to say you'll ride 90% FTP for an hour on a flat and be disciplined enough to do it even on a road with no stops, and it's another to do 90% FTP on a mountain climb that has no descents and takes an hour to climb. It's MUCH easier to hit higher FTP numbers on the hills.

- Avg speed does get pretty messed up if you neglect the elevation profile, but if you include the total elevation numbers, it was pretty darn good for me. And no need to be super anal about it either - I just grouped by 2-3k climbing, 3k-4k, 4k-5k, etc., and my avg speeds are remarkably similar, to the point that it predicted my half ironman race time within 1mph given the elevation profile in retrospect. (I race a half ironman just about as hard as I train on long rides, perhaps a hair less.)

Anyway, I know I'm not gonna change the 41's opinion on the hatred of avg speed, but I was using it as a metric before getting the powermeter, and although yes, the powermeter does deliver better numbers, the avg speed metric is still remarkably good, particularly when I look at my avg power vs avg speed metric which correlate. In fact, in retrospect, if you look at my weekly long rides, you could easily make the argument that I could have just used a good ol' speedo and skipped the powermeter to assess my performance.
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Old 04-27-13, 03:19 PM
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Biggest problem with avg speed IMO is comparing your average speed with that of anyone else in another part of the world. The same issues don't exist when comparing power.
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Old 04-27-13, 03:26 PM
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I you have not already get GoldenCheetah, it's free. You will find a lot more metrics to judge your rides. Many triguys of which I believe you are one don't put in the intensity that really enables you to get faster. Riding steady state TT form on aerobars is great for endurance but you will never exploit your speed, acceleration and climbing potential. Import your rides and take a look at your bikescore over time. Just a thought.
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Old 04-27-13, 03:51 PM
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Originally Posted by DaveWC
Biggest problem with avg speed IMO is comparing your average speed with that of anyone else in another part of the world. The same issues don't exist when comparing power.
Exactly. Average speed between people is almost useless. For yourself? Can be helpful. Even then, total time is the more basic measure (from which avg speed is calculated).

Use it in conjunction with some sort of feedback/diary system. Meaning: My average speed over this same course was slower today, but that's because...
a) there was a ferocious headwind,
b) I have a slight cold,
c) the air temps were too hot/cold,
d) I rode at a different time of day than normal, etc...
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Old 04-27-13, 04:23 PM
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Originally Posted by popeye
I you have not already get GoldenCheetah, it's free. You will find a lot more metrics to judge your rides. Many triguys of which I believe you are one don't put in the intensity that really enables you to get faster. Riding steady state TT form on aerobars is great for endurance but you will never exploit your speed, acceleration and climbing potential. Import your rides and take a look at your bikescore over time. Just a thought.

I already use golden cheetah - that's where I got all them numbers from.

Also, I couldn't care less about comparing numbers across the interwebz. But even then, just because you have higher power does NOT mean you are a faster rider. Weight, conditions, climbing, etc. make a huge difference. I'm not even a big guy, but some folks are really slippery in the wind or really light and climb well. I know a guy who goes 23+mph on a measly 200 watts of power for 56 miles, whereas I have to put out close to 270 watts to go that fast.

I'd actually put more faith in comparing avg speed on known courses. For example the Old LaHonda climb in Norcal is a well used gauge of one's ability with how fast you can get up it. Also, you tell me you did a century in "X" time, and I'll have a pretty good sense of your ability right away. You tell me the elevation profile, and I'll probably pin your ability relative to mine with very high accuracy.

And lastly, riding steady state TT on aerobars is perfectly great for road racing, even if you're not just doing TTs and triathlons. YOu raise your FTP, you go faster. On climbs, sprints, and acceleration. In fact, I attribute ALL of my very noticeable 30 watt increase in average power of a 56 mile loop to exactly doing that - riding almost all solo aero position but on courses with 5000+ feet of climbing, up to 21% in grade.

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Old 04-27-13, 04:32 PM
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The powermeter is most useful if you're doing a structured training plan and are attempting to ride intervals at a set power level. I often end up doing intervals on an out and back course or a loop and there is always wind, so even though my power is constant my speed can be all over the place. It's also very easy to monitor progress from month to month.
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Old 04-27-13, 05:01 PM
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Windy on my ride today. Rode 40 miles. 20 miles into the wind and 20 miles back with it. My ave speed out was 2 mph slower than back home. I bet my average power was 10-15% higher going out with the slower speed. So not much correlation. Maybe if both directions were averaged. In my experience, wind is a big factor as is change in elevation relative to ave. speed and power. Also temperature is big. Punching a hole in cold air molecules takes a lot more energy than riding in 80 deg F.
Congrats on your training h. I have considered getting a power meter but honestly I believe it would simply reflect the above.
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Old 04-27-13, 05:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Campag4life
Windy on my ride today. Rode 40 miles. 20 miles into the wind and 20 miles back with it. My ave speed out was 2 mph slower than back home. I bet my average power was 10-15% higher going out with the slower speed. So not much correlation. Maybe if both directions were averaged. In my experience, wind is a big factor as is change in elevation relative to ave. speed and power. Also temperature is big. Punching a hole in cold air molecules takes a lot more energy than riding in 80 deg F.
Congrats on your training h. I have considered getting a power meter but honestly I believe it would simply reflect the above.
Honestly, at least on my routes, all the wind/conditions seem to average out over 25+miles so that my avg speed is shockingly consistent. In that 50 mile loop I've done nearly every week since January, my avg speed has ticked up by very small increments - it's never jumped more than 0.4mph, and usually ticks upwards as my fitness increases by 0.1-0.2mph. It's really weird to pull up my rides on GC and see how spookily consistent the avg speed is - even if I feel I hit more stoplights one day, take a downhill faster another day, or put in a bit more effort on a climb one day, I get home and the avg speed is always within 0.1-0.4mph of my norm. (And it's almost always 0.1-0.2)


I do admit though that if I did more heavy drafting rides, I'd see more fluctuation in the avg speed, based upon some of my older rides when I was riding all the time with a road cycling group in LA. Almost all my rides now are non-draft so things are def more consistent.

Last edited by hhnngg1; 04-27-13 at 06:21 PM.
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Old 04-27-13, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by gregf83
The powermeter is most useful if you're doing a structured training plan and are attempting to ride intervals at a set power level. I often end up doing intervals on an out and back course or a loop and there is always wind, so even though my power is constant my speed can be all over the place. It's also very easy to monitor progress from month to month.
Actually, my powermeter has been of most value for me in using it for indoor TrainerRoad.com training. I only ride the trainer on weekdays (4:30AM baby!) and I got the powermeter expressly to be able to correlate my indoor training to my regular weekend long ride. I have had very good results indoors and out.


Honestly, if I were just riding outdoors though, I don't think my powermeter would be anywhere as useful. I don't think I would have the discipline to ride up and down a hill or flat road to do something like 4 x 8min @ FTP - I'd instead just pick a few loops and climbs in my area and ride them as hard as I felt like it instead of really trying to hit the power numbers. And as you said, unless you're trying to target power numbers in training to really guide your training, the powermeter isn't improving you - it's just recording stuff and having no impact on guiding your training.

I like TR + PM because it's ALL about hitting those target power numbers. No guessing, no riding by feel - just do the FTP test, and hammer away at the correct intensity. Yeah, it hurts a lot more than you expect, even on the non FTP efforts. A bonus I've found as well is that I probably gain 15-20watts of avg power going outdoors for whatever reason. I've never formally tested it, but I did do a 27 minute hillclimb TT with the local triclub 2 weeks ago and I held an average power of 319 watts for the entire 27 minute climb (I was surprised at this), so I suspect my outdoor FTP is higher than the 248 that I'm seeing indoors on Trainerroad. (WOw having bunnies to chase down helped a lot - staggered start.)
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Old 04-27-13, 07:05 PM
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I, too, typically ride 20-30 watts more outdoors than in. I attribute that to a leg only ride indoors vs a full body ride outdoors since the trainer requires little to no core activation. I generate WAY more power climbing hills outdoors than any simulation of that indoors.
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Old 04-27-13, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by hhnngg1
I know firsthand of all the avg speed bashing on this forum. Conditions, wind, terrain, drafting, etc, which allegedly make avg speed MEANINGLESS.

I've been using a powermeter for the last 6 months both indoors and outdoors and it's been good stuff. Particularly for guiding indoor training (TrainerRoad), and as a recording tool for outdoor rides.

Reviewed my rides in the last 6 months (FTP + 20watts for real!) and found that the average speed metric is actually very good for me.
Granted, I do mostly solo rides so I'm not drafting much, so as long as I have a rough elevation profile of the course in terms of total elevation, I can get a pretty good estimate of how avg speed compares. It's actually not bad at all.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not about to throw out my powermeter any time soon (love it) but there were surprising small issues that made it more complicated than just looking at your power number after you're done with a ride:

- Normalized Power really underweights lo efforts and hugely overweights hard efforts. I did a ride today where my average power was only 60% of what it normal is because I'm racing next week so I went easy with a group, yet my normalized power was 95% of my race effort power, likely because I put in a few very short hi-power climbs in there (under 5 minutes for sure each) and easy pedaled a lot of the ride. If you just looked at NP, you would have thought I did a hard workout today, but the total watts and avg power show that it was a cakewalk.

- Avg power is pretty decent, but for my numbers at least, isn't much more helpful than my average speed. In fact, both avg power and avg speed went up and down in tandem on my training rides of varying intensities.

- Conditions as well as the course affect power more than you might think. It's one thing to say you'll ride 90% FTP for an hour on a flat and be disciplined enough to do it even on a road with no stops, and it's another to do 90% FTP on a mountain climb that has no descents and takes an hour to climb. It's MUCH easier to hit higher FTP numbers on the hills.

- Avg speed does get pretty messed up if you neglect the elevation profile, but if you include the total elevation numbers, it was pretty darn good for me. And no need to be super anal about it either - I just grouped by 2-3k climbing, 3k-4k, 4k-5k, etc., and my avg speeds are remarkably similar, to the point that it predicted my half ironman race time within 1mph given the elevation profile in retrospect. (I race a half ironman just about as hard as I train on long rides, perhaps a hair less.)

Anyway, I know I'm not gonna change the 41's opinion on the hatred of avg speed, but I was using it as a metric before getting the powermeter, and although yes, the powermeter does deliver better numbers, the avg speed metric is still remarkably good, particularly when I look at my avg power vs avg speed metric which correlate. In fact, in retrospect, if you look at my weekly long rides, you could easily make the argument that I could have just used a good ol' speedo and skipped the powermeter to assess my performance.
...well..there's your problem...
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Old 04-27-13, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by hhnngg1
I've never formally tested it, but I did do a 27 minute hillclimb TT with the local triclub 2 weeks ago and I held an average power of 319 watts for the entire 27 minute climb (I was surprised at this), so I suspect my outdoor FTP is higher than the 248 that I'm seeing indoors on Trainerroad. (WOw having bunnies to chase down helped a lot - staggered start.)
If you held 319 for 27min your FTP is definitely higher than 248! Stop sandbagging and bump up your FTP.
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Old 04-27-13, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by gregf83
If you held 319 for 27min your FTP is definitely higher than 248! Stop sandbagging and bump up your FTP.
Yes - my last FTP test was 2 months ago and was a 2 x 20 on TrainerRoad. I've definitely improved since then (avg watts went up every long weekend ride since then) but just haven't been able to test it since I've always been tired or time crunched during the week to do it. I was actually shocked at my power - I didn't look at the PM for the first 10 minutes and just rode 'very hard' and when I glanced down and saw 340s at one point, was very surprised. (It went down to 300s by the end.)

That 319 was nice, but it was definitely a 'race' effort. With the TT style with riders sent off every 30 seconds, I had rabbits to overtake the entire way, so I felt like I really overperformed and gave it more than my all by the end. There's actually no way I can put up that much power on my own, so I take that number with a big grain of salt since I'll never see that type of avg without rabbits and that 'race' environment. I'm still going to rely on indoor 2 x 20' Trainerroad testing to reestablish FTP, in the next week or two hopefully.
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Old 04-27-13, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by TANC
I, too, typically ride 20-30 watts more outdoors than in. I attribute that to a leg only ride indoors vs a full body ride outdoors since the trainer requires little to no core activation. I generate WAY more power climbing hills outdoors than any simulation of that indoors.
I always wonder what my FTP is if I did my test outdoors. I just started my structured program this week and don't want to be messing around with my #s now.
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Old 04-27-13, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
...well..there's your problem...
That is very true. I ride solo most of the time and it is real easy to get in a rut. When you ride with others, especially those stronger than you, you pick up the pace. I ride numerous group rides (HHH, etc) and ride a lot harder on these rides.
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Old 04-27-13, 08:09 PM
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I do pretty much all the intervals indoors (because of time issues, more controlled conditions, etc).
Because of that, the FTP that matters in my case is the one indoors (and I also found a significant difference when I test on the road).

By far, the highest recorded numbers in my case were during our weekly group rides (that have become like races), but for training purposes, it really doesn't matter.
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Old 04-27-13, 08:20 PM
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Originally Posted by bikepro
That is very true. I ride solo most of the time and it is real easy to get in a rut. When you ride with others, especially those stronger than you, you pick up the pace. I ride numerous group rides (HHH, etc) and ride a lot harder on these rides.

FWIW - I have made significantly more gains in a shorter time by riding entirely solo that when I was group riding almost all the time with competitive roadies 2-3 years ago.

WIth your solo rides, you can progressively push the pace and distance, every week if needed. THe powermeter also keeps you objective and honest about it.

WIth the group rides, you're often at the mercy of who shows up, what the mood is, and what the chosen course is. Some workouts would be absolute crushers, and others would be almost easy efforts for the most part - what happened to me is that I got to a certain level, and then relying on those group rides didn't push me past that level. With my solo rides, I'm always pushing it week by week, incrementally, steadily, which has resulted in much better gains for me, although granted I'm not doing criteriums now and focusing on TT and triathlon nondraft riding.

Still, with my power gains, I'd have no doubt I'm a substantially stronger group rider now than I was 2 years ago, even though I don't ride with the groups now. I don't have the exact power numbers to boot, but my avg speed is almost 2mph higher now - what would have been a 1hr max effort for me back then is now a 3+hr aerobic effort pace.
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Old 04-27-13, 08:25 PM
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Originally Posted by DaveWC
Biggest problem with avg speed IMO is comparing your average speed with that of anyone else in another part of the world. The same issues don't exist when comparing power.
That is not true.
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Old 04-27-13, 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by ngchi
That is not true.
How's that?
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Old 04-27-13, 09:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Psimet2001
How's that?
I think it's on account of the metric system or something.
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Old 04-27-13, 09:32 PM
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Originally Posted by ngchi
That is not true.
Average speed isn't even a good metric for comparing your personal day to day performance, since it doesn't consider wind, riding different routes, etc. On the other hand, a watt is a watt -- riding fast on a flat road with little wind, or uphill against a strong headwind.
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Old 04-27-13, 11:00 PM
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Originally Posted by bikepro
Average speed isn't even a good metric for comparing your personal day to day performance, since it doesn't consider wind, riding different routes, etc. On the other hand, a watt is a watt -- riding fast on a flat road with little wind, or uphill against a strong headwind.
Again, I bought into all this as well (which is part of the reason I got a powermeter to begin with) but as I said, at least for my rides it's a very, very reproducible and consistent metric. My rides are over 25miles in length so I think some of the variables average out. It's as consistent as my average power from ride to ride (to my surprise).
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Old 04-28-13, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by hhnngg1
Again, I bought into all this as well (which is part of the reason I got a powermeter to begin with) but as I said, at least for my rides it's a very, very reproducible and consistent metric. My rides are over 25miles in length so I think some of the variables average out. It's as consistent as my average power from ride to ride (to my surprise).
For you and your rides, great. But by the whole reason most other people get a PM and the intended use for it is to avoid having things "average out". They want to be spending a certain amount of time in a power zone regardless of pitch, wind, road conditions, etc.

Riding for average speed and letting things average out over an hour+ ride is simply the exact opposite of a proper power based training plan.

But you paid for it, so go do what you like.
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Old 04-28-13, 06:50 AM
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I think you are still missing the point.

If you always ride the same route, then you can pretty accurately guesstimate your time and thereby average speed. That's not exactly rocket surgery.

But what would happen if you rode something completely new? How would ave spd be of any use then? It wouldn't tell you much. There are far too many variables to make it a meaningful metric. As was mentioned the entire point of a PM is to train in a very SPECIFIC way and not using such an unspecific metric as AVERAGES.

Now that you have a PM and should have been doing power based training with it this should have become blatantly obvious. There are no intervals that focus on average spd, they are all about effort and time, SPEED IS IRRELEVANT and average speed even more so.
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Old 04-28-13, 06:59 AM
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Originally Posted by hhnngg1
Yes - my last FTP test was 2 months ago and was a 2 x 20 on TrainerRoad. I've definitely improved since then (avg watts went up every long weekend ride since then) but just haven't been able to test it since I've always been tired or time crunched during the week to do it. I was actually shocked at my power - I didn't look at the PM for the first 10 minutes and just rode 'very hard' and when I glanced down and saw 340s at one point, was very surprised. (It went down to 300s by the end.)

That 319 was nice, but it was definitely a 'race' effort. With the TT style with riders sent off every 30 seconds, I had rabbits to overtake the entire way, so I felt like I really overperformed and gave it more than my all by the end. There's actually no way I can put up that much power on my own, so I take that number with a big grain of salt since I'll never see that type of avg without rabbits and that 'race' environment. I'm still going to rely on indoor 2 x 20' Trainerroad testing to reestablish FTP, in the next week or two hopefully.
319W for almost 30 minutes is very good. For perspective, I read that Lance was capable of sustaining 500W for 30 minutes which is pretty astounding if you think about it.
No doubt a power meter is a great training tool. As a recreational distance cyclist, it doesn't really fit my objective as I don't want to ride any harder or longer...especially solo. For a serious racer or somebody who really wants to determine their limits and push themselves accordingly...and seems you have the discipline to do this which I applaud, seems like a great tool though.
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