View Poll Results: Who takes the yellow jersey?
Tadej Pogacar
7
25.93%
Geraint Thomas
2
7.41%
Primoz Roglic
11
40.74%
Richie Porte
0
0%
Miguel Ángel López
0
0%
Richard Carapaz
4
14.81%
Julian Alaphilippe
2
7.41%
Wilco Kelderman
0
0%
Simon Yates
0
0%
Someone else
1
3.70%
Voters: 27. You may not vote on this poll
Tour de France Contenders
#1
Senior Member
Thread Starter
Tour de France Contenders
Who takes the yellow?
#2
velo-dilettante
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,316
Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1628 Post(s)
Liked 3,114 Times
in
1,683 Posts
methinx tadej has the most raw talent, primoz has the most versatility and carapaz is the most calculating. bernal reestablished his bonafides recently.
these four guys will be in the mix for all the gt's the next five years with the occasional encroachment of a yatesie or buchmann, et al, here and there
with abandons, crash outs and the like.
these four guys will be in the mix for all the gt's the next five years with the occasional encroachment of a yatesie or buchmann, et al, here and there
with abandons, crash outs and the like.
#4
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Central Io-way
Posts: 2,673
Bikes: LeMond Zurich, Giant Talon 29er
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1221 Post(s)
Liked 629 Times
in
472 Posts
My vote is for Carapaz, he's looking great. Dark horse: Porte - there's two TTs this year and three mountains might not factor in as much. They seem to be setting everything up for Alaphillipe though ...
Likes For GrainBrain:
#5
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 1,794
Mentioned: 14 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1027 Post(s)
Liked 326 Times
in
204 Posts
methinx tadej has the most raw talent, primoz has the most versatility and carapaz is the most calculating. bernal reestablished his bonafides recently.
these four guys will be in the mix for all the gt's the next five years with the occasional encroachment of a yatesie or buchmann, et al, here and there
with abandons, crash outs and the like.
these four guys will be in the mix for all the gt's the next five years with the occasional encroachment of a yatesie or buchmann, et al, here and there
with abandons, crash outs and the like.
#6
velo-dilettante
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,316
Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1628 Post(s)
Liked 3,114 Times
in
1,683 Posts
possibly...the giro was pretty ambitious for his first race back but he's set the bar pretty high in the short
time since he burst onto the scene. would love to see him do this year's vuelta to see how he handles
a gt with adequate time/prep. not discounting remco potentially being included with tadej, primoz, et al
because his talent is off the charts. he may just be better suited for one-days and 3-8 day tours vs the
gt's but we'll see. no shame in that if that's the case. and then there are those annoying team/sponsor(s) needs/goals...
time since he burst onto the scene. would love to see him do this year's vuelta to see how he handles
a gt with adequate time/prep. not discounting remco potentially being included with tadej, primoz, et al
because his talent is off the charts. he may just be better suited for one-days and 3-8 day tours vs the
gt's but we'll see. no shame in that if that's the case. and then there are those annoying team/sponsor(s) needs/goals...
#7
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,752
Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4391 Post(s)
Liked 3,016 Times
in
1,865 Posts
I'm going with Carapaz. He looks great and he's got the strongest team behind him. Though I do wonder if Ineos will subjugate him and Porte to support Thomas.
#8
velo-dilettante
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,316
Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1628 Post(s)
Liked 3,114 Times
in
1,683 Posts
^thinking carapaz and bernal are driving the sur america ineos train currently and the crash bros aka (gthomas and richie) are just checking tickets at this point.
if ineos wants to use carapaz (again) to support thomas, bernal, porte, yatesie, tgh or anyone i may or may not have forgotten, their rivals will be breathing a
sigh of relief. they'd be dumber than i thought...and i know dumb.
if ineos wants to use carapaz (again) to support thomas, bernal, porte, yatesie, tgh or anyone i may or may not have forgotten, their rivals will be breathing a
sigh of relief. they'd be dumber than i thought...and i know dumb.
#9
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,752
Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4391 Post(s)
Liked 3,016 Times
in
1,865 Posts
A couple of years ago we vacationed in Ecuador. those first nights in Quito (elevation 9400') adjusting to the altitude was something else. At first, it's even hard to sleep because you can't get enough oxygen at normal sleeping respiration rates. And Quito is in a deep valley! Everything else in the area is much higher.
And I thought, "never mind Colombia - people born here would make champion racers. Why aren't there any Ecuadorians on top of the pro tour?"
and the next year, Carapaz surfaced at the Giro.
And I thought, "never mind Colombia - people born here would make champion racers. Why aren't there any Ecuadorians on top of the pro tour?"
and the next year, Carapaz surfaced at the Giro.
Likes For MinnMan:
#10
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 5,752
Bikes: 2022 Salsa Beargrease Carbon Deore 11, 2020 Salsa Warbird GRX 600, 2020 Canyon Ultimate CF SLX disc 9.0 Di2, 2020 Catrike Eola, 2016 Masi cxgr, 2011, Felt F3 Ltd, 2010 Trek 2.1, 2009 KHS Flite 220
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4391 Post(s)
Liked 3,016 Times
in
1,865 Posts
13 votes in the poll thus far. That's maybe a little more than the number of regular posters in this subforum in non TdF times. I imagine we'll see more people joining in next week.
Chris Horner has some interesting things to say about the Ineos selections. I agree that the absence of Rohan Denis is surprising.
They have too many "leaders" (4!) and not enough power in their domestique corps. last year it was J-V that drove the train through much of the race, and Ineos suffered for it. Unless some of their "leaders" are going to put time on the front early in the stages, I don't see how Ineos will be able to protect their real GC favorites.
I guess they are saving Adam Yates for the Vuelta.
Chris Horner has some interesting things to say about the Ineos selections. I agree that the absence of Rohan Denis is surprising.
They have too many "leaders" (4!) and not enough power in their domestique corps. last year it was J-V that drove the train through much of the race, and Ineos suffered for it. Unless some of their "leaders" are going to put time on the front early in the stages, I don't see how Ineos will be able to protect their real GC favorites.
I guess they are saving Adam Yates for the Vuelta.
#11
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: South Shore of Long Island
Posts: 2,799
Bikes: 2010 Carrera Volans, 2015 C-Dale Trail 2sl, 2017 Raleigh Rush Hour, 2017 Blue Proseccio, 1992 Giant Perigee, 80s Gitane Rallye Tandem
Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1088 Post(s)
Liked 1,025 Times
in
723 Posts
I'm hopeful Alaphillipe will get the jersey, he's a fun racer to watch, especially when he's trying to hang on to it. But he can't keep it to the end, just don't think he has it in him.
#12
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Seattle
Posts: 1,957
Bikes: Specialized Roubaix, Canyon Inflite AL SLX, Ibis Ripley AF, Priority Continuum Onyx, Santana Vision, Kent Dual-Drive Tandem
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 878 Post(s)
Liked 726 Times
in
436 Posts
I think it's Pogacar's to lose, but anyone's Grand Tour ambitions can be ruined by a bad day in the crosswinds (excepting J-V underestimating and letting him hang around last year, which will never happen again) or worse.
Ineos has more bullets, what they lack in being top-heavy can be dealt with if they show themselves able to surf other trains the way Pogacar did with practically no support. Then when/if other teams' leaders falter, they'll have the most options to cash in, just as long as they don't Movistar it. Thomas has already shown that he's willing to help a teammate even as the defending champ, Porte has been openly realistic that his ambitions will more than likely face bizarre misfortune, leaving Carapaz who may be weakest in the TT and be a non-threat anyway.
Roglic won't have Dumoulin or a peaking van Aert, I know he'll have the hunger and drive but I don't know that he can beat Pogacar without everything going right /wrong for Pogacar (like having to protect a teammate's GC, another thing that won't be happening at the TdF).
Ineos has more bullets, what they lack in being top-heavy can be dealt with if they show themselves able to surf other trains the way Pogacar did with practically no support. Then when/if other teams' leaders falter, they'll have the most options to cash in, just as long as they don't Movistar it. Thomas has already shown that he's willing to help a teammate even as the defending champ, Porte has been openly realistic that his ambitions will more than likely face bizarre misfortune, leaving Carapaz who may be weakest in the TT and be a non-threat anyway.
Roglic won't have Dumoulin or a peaking van Aert, I know he'll have the hunger and drive but I don't know that he can beat Pogacar without everything going right /wrong for Pogacar (like having to protect a teammate's GC, another thing that won't be happening at the TdF).
#13
velo-dilettante
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,316
Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1628 Post(s)
Liked 3,114 Times
in
1,683 Posts
we may just get treated to another epic tdf mano a mano battle royal between roglic and pogacar. both excel in the tt's, when the road turns up and in classics-styled scenarios.
don't think carapaz is as versatile but he's pretty close (his tt's aren't as bad as you would think) and his team keeps him in the conversation. will be interesting to see how ineos
plays things this go round. they've had a semi-surprising amount of success with stage wins (and what comes with it) in the last year taking the initiative on breakaways and forcing the issue vs their
traditional defensive, high pace so no one attacks style. semi-surprising in the fact that they actually adopted a more aggressive posture...not semi-surprising in the fact that they have some of the
most talented riders in the peloton currently within their ranks. will be interesting to see if they throw out thomas, richie, tgh, castroviejo, etc on individual flyers on multiple stages
vs keeping them all in the fold every day. bora, bahrain, dqs, astana and ef are other teams that could slide a rider into a podium place if everything goes well.
don't think carapaz is as versatile but he's pretty close (his tt's aren't as bad as you would think) and his team keeps him in the conversation. will be interesting to see how ineos
plays things this go round. they've had a semi-surprising amount of success with stage wins (and what comes with it) in the last year taking the initiative on breakaways and forcing the issue vs their
traditional defensive, high pace so no one attacks style. semi-surprising in the fact that they actually adopted a more aggressive posture...not semi-surprising in the fact that they have some of the
most talented riders in the peloton currently within their ranks. will be interesting to see if they throw out thomas, richie, tgh, castroviejo, etc on individual flyers on multiple stages
vs keeping them all in the fold every day. bora, bahrain, dqs, astana and ef are other teams that could slide a rider into a podium place if everything goes well.
Last edited by diphthong; 06-20-21 at 04:17 AM.
#14
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Central Io-way
Posts: 2,673
Bikes: LeMond Zurich, Giant Talon 29er
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1221 Post(s)
Liked 629 Times
in
472 Posts
I'm curious about Bahrain - are they going to try for a GC result with Poels and the green jersey with Colbrelli? Maybe stage wins first then see how Poels does in GC? Landa must be targeting the Vuelta huh? Mohoric is back so I'm hoping to see him recovered from that Giro horror crash.
Rigo will place on the podium
Oh Rigo, always quiet. Love the sandbagging by Vaughters et al ... "Oh gee that was a surprise ... !!" Not a surprise at all imo. Sure not much racing done, but he's been getting steadily better even with hits nasty crash in Vuelta ('19 or '20?). Rigo has been placing very high in the TTs compared to his GC counter parts.
#15
bored of "Senior Member"
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: MD / metro DC
Posts: 2,883
Bikes: Cross-Check/Nexus commuter. Several others for various forms of play.
Mentioned: 9 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 642 Post(s)
Liked 593 Times
in
453 Posts
I voted Pogacar but I'm mentally walking that back with the 58ish km of flattish TT.
No love for G here in the poll? I guess his TdS results didn't scream for it but I wouldn't be surprised to see him up a bit. It will be interesting to watch the intra-Ineos battles and see where Pogacar & Carapaz can steal the time to bleed a bit to the Roglics, Urans, and maybe Thomas & Porte on those two stages plus whatever other bizarre splits show up for the GC bunch on the non-mountain days.
I would not be surprised to see Tadej in a bit of a UAE hole after the first week from cross-winds or something that they won't be as on top of as Ineos, J-V, DQS, etc.
No love for G here in the poll? I guess his TdS results didn't scream for it but I wouldn't be surprised to see him up a bit. It will be interesting to watch the intra-Ineos battles and see where Pogacar & Carapaz can steal the time to bleed a bit to the Roglics, Urans, and maybe Thomas & Porte on those two stages plus whatever other bizarre splits show up for the GC bunch on the non-mountain days.
I would not be surprised to see Tadej in a bit of a UAE hole after the first week from cross-winds or something that they won't be as on top of as Ineos, J-V, DQS, etc.
#17
Senior Member
Thread Starter
#18
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Central Io-way
Posts: 2,673
Bikes: LeMond Zurich, Giant Talon 29er
Mentioned: 17 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1221 Post(s)
Liked 629 Times
in
472 Posts
Almost but there's still a soft "r" at the end.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Slovenian.ogg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped..._Slovenian.ogg
#20
velo-dilettante
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: insane diego, california
Posts: 8,316
Bikes: 85 pinarello treviso steel, 88 nishiki olympic steel. 95 look kg 131 carbon, 11 trek madone 5.2 carbon
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1628 Post(s)
Liked 3,114 Times
in
1,683 Posts
bernal not in the tdf this year but i was referencing he, carapaz, roglic and pogacar in reference to all three grand tours upcoming in the next handful of years,
not just the one that seems to get the most attention.
not just the one that seems to get the most attention.
#21
For The Fun of It
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Louisissippi Coast
Posts: 5,852
Bikes: Lynskey GR300, Lynskey Backroad, Litespeed T6, Lynskey MT29, Burley Duet
Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2135 Post(s)
Liked 1,647 Times
in
829 Posts
I did not know that about Bernal until just now. I hope he can find relief for his back problems.
Primoz for the win.
I always like to guess who the highest placing USA rider will be and how far out of the top ten they will place.
Sepp Cuss was very good last year in the second half. Save for two stages, he was as good as anyone from the mid point on. Cuss will place in the low 20's
Last edited by Paul Barnard; 06-24-21 at 06:07 AM.
#22
Junior Member
Originally Posted by Paul Barnard;22115410[b
]I did not know that about Bernal until just now. I hope he can find relief for his back problems.
Primoz for the win.
I always like to guess who the highest placing USA rider will be and how far out of the top ten they will place.
Sepp Cuss was very good last year in the second half. Save for two stages, he was as good as anyone from the mid point on. Cuss will place in the low 20's
Primoz for the win.
I always like to guess who the highest placing USA rider will be and how far out of the top ten they will place.
Sepp Cuss was very good last year in the second half. Save for two stages, he was as good as anyone from the mid point on. Cuss will place in the low 20's
Likes For Snotrub:
#23
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Southern California, USA
Posts: 10,475
Bikes: 1979 Raleigh Team 753
Mentioned: 153 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3375 Post(s)
Liked 371 Times
in
253 Posts
But...teams know having a USA guy do well brings up eye-balls in the USA at least (which buys things) and allowing them to fly free a few stages may help their sponsors more than helping the GC guys.
I expect Brandon will not be holding back in the ITT and I expect Sepp will be allowed to fly up a mountain stage. Rating the USA riders against each other works better when their job isn't about getting their GC guy to place better.
#24
For The Fun of It
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Louisissippi Coast
Posts: 5,852
Bikes: Lynskey GR300, Lynskey Backroad, Litespeed T6, Lynskey MT29, Burley Duet
Mentioned: 12 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2135 Post(s)
Liked 1,647 Times
in
829 Posts
That is an interesting equation. Right now all the USA riders are there to sacrifice for their GC guy. It would not be unusual for them to even hold back in an ITT to help another day.
But...teams know having a USA guy do well brings up eye-balls in the USA at least (which buys things) and allowing them to fly free a few stages may help their sponsors more than helping the GC guys.
I expect Brandon will not be holding back in the ITT and I expect Sepp will be allowed to fly up a mountain stage. Rating the USA riders against each other works better when their job isn't about getting their GC guy to place better.
But...teams know having a USA guy do well brings up eye-balls in the USA at least (which buys things) and allowing them to fly free a few stages may help their sponsors more than helping the GC guys.
I expect Brandon will not be holding back in the ITT and I expect Sepp will be allowed to fly up a mountain stage. Rating the USA riders against each other works better when their job isn't about getting their GC guy to place better.
#25
Senior Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Southern California, USA
Posts: 10,475
Bikes: 1979 Raleigh Team 753
Mentioned: 153 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3375 Post(s)
Liked 371 Times
in
253 Posts
I also find it interesting to read of riders using the TdF for training for the Olympics with others might sacrifice Olympic performance to help their GC guy. Point is Tokyo also affects this tour.
Likes For Doge: