Ninety5rpm

I know we already have a self-driving car thread, but that one is focused on safety. I intend for this one to be about how they will affect bike usage. Or will they?

I think Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will cause bike usage to increase for the following reasons.

1. More and more people will use AV taxis to get around and won't own their own cars.
2. Because they won't own their own cars, and an AV taxi hits the wallet every time, they will opt to bike and walk more often.
3. The roads will feel and be safer with computer rather than fallible human drivers.

What do you think, and why?

PaulH

Bike usage will go down because bikes and AVs are competing solutions to the same problems of congestion and scarcity of parking. AVs will free up a lot of parking space and make driving more practical. The need for bicycles will be reduced.

genec

AVs will be fine for longer trips, but bikes still offer great short trip spontaneity.

Ninety5rpm

I thought of something else. Without cars hogging up garage space, those who get rid of their cars will have more room for bikes and maintenance equipment, making a bike just sitting there ready to go more likely.

mr_bill

Garage? What is this “garage” you speak of.

So many assumptions....

-mr. bill

squirtdad

This is a Bicycle advocacy forum not an AV forum, Can this get moved to Foo or P&R or some place else? Or the OP can find an AV forum.

as to the question...no impact because

AV have nothing to do with reasons people don't use bike for errands/commutes etc

prathmann

I expect AVs to have very extensive and fundamental changes in our personal transportation choices and therefore to also affect the use of bicycles. Currently I keep my car available largely because it is far more convenient and frequently more economical than such options as Uber/Lyft, conventional taxis, our very occasional bus service, etc.
If AVs make such options more practical (i.e. Uber without the need to pay drivers, frequent local automated jitneys, etc.) then I'd be far more likely to initially drop to only one car in the family and eventually to none. I already use my bike for most of my short-distance utility trips and would expect that to increase to essentially all such trips if there weren't the temptation of riding right past the available car on the way out the garage.

OTOH, for those who don't currently use a bicycle for transportation a major reason cited is the safety concern. Some of this is undoubtedly wishful thinking, but I expect some is also a valid concern and if AVs replaced most of the dangerous human-controlled vehicles it would eventually allay most of those fears.

genec

You know... half that big empty space that came with the house... part of which you have already converted to a man cave. Now just keep the rest of that space for your N+1 bicycles.

CliffordK

I think it is like asking whether elevators and escalators will increase or decrease climbing stairs. Give people an easier choice, and they'll take it.

Autonomous vehicles likely will make driving easier. Plus, it will likely increase the number of eligible drivers. There would be no reason not to decrease the driving age from 15/16 down to 10... or lower. Or perhaps eliminate the driving age restriction. Let the parents decide when they wish to allow the kids to take the car out.

No longer will young teenagers be banished to riding bikes for transportation. Likewise, a DUI restriction wouldn't make much sense.

If accident rates do in fact go down, speeds might increase, and there might be less stimulis for cities to add more lanes to roads. I.E. more, faster traffic on our roads.

I just don't see us getting a new cycling paradise.

Future cycling will be affected by future fuel prices, and social and political pressure, as well as a changing exercise and fitness landscape.

Will we get more leisure time, or will people still desire to work 2 or 3 jobs?

mr_bill

No big empty space came with the house. (The house is older than the pedal velocipede, let alone horseless carriages.)

No carriage house either. Barn and the farm was gone shortly after the G.I. Bill passed.

It’s a farmless house.

-mr. bill

genec

It might go that way... but driving ANY car, be it human driven, or full robotics, takes money. Riding a bike just takes a bit of labor. No doubt the economic inequality gap will continue. Less fortunate will still need to get around. Even in a post apocalyptic scenerio like Blade Runner, bikes exist.

I suspect we won't fully go down that path, nor become the Jetson's world either.

With self driving cars fully in compliance with rules of the road, it should become safer to bike. Besides, there are always the narrow offroad paths that kids and young adults tend to favor anyway... that AVs will not use.

Folks like mr bill are just gonna have to find room for a bike or two somewhere.

I used to hang mine from the stair railing, when I lived in a small downtown apartment.

Ninety5rpm

+1000

Ninety5rpm

I think many kids and teens will lose the parent chauffeur and will be faced with two options:

1. Spend allowance (if any) on an AV taxi ride, or
2. Walk/bike and spend said allowance on food/drink/tickets/games, etc.

In many cases economics will necessitate option 2. Hence more biking.

CliffordK

I just don't foresee an end to individual car ownership as autonomous vehicles come out. If taxi rates come down, then we may see some people choosing to use taxi services more frequently. Or perhaps choose single car ownership in a family that would otherwise have had two or three cars.

But, taxis will likely remain "for profit" industries. So, individual car ownership may still be cheaper.

Some people may choose to outfit their cars for driverless uber runs... have them make money while one is working. But that may still be a minority of car owners.

I don't think I've ever taken a taxi shopping. But, I assume one has two choices. One either pays for idle time, or one has to schlep one's worldly possessions from store to store... just about like cyclists who are forced to leave their backpacks up front... just because they may be thieves??? Thus... again, more convenient to have one's own car. Have a few conveniences that one leaves in one's car? Or always have a "go bag" with one to toss into the taxi?

Will anybody frown if one puts one's own bumper stickers on the taxi when it arrives?

Oh, and if accident rates come down, then insurance rates should come down. Or, if accident rates are reduced to near zero, the mandatory liability (and comprehensive) insurance requirements may be lifted, and thus individual car ownership might also become cheaper.

tyrion

Decrease slightly. If there's a cheap and timely taxi available, those who commute by bike will be tempted to take the easy way out on those cold rainy days.

Powered vehicles will be less environmentally friendly than bicycles for a long time (maybe forever), so the environmentally minded and the fitness minded won't be giving up their biking for the most part.

AlmostTrick

"Amount of cycling won't be affected much by AVs."

Because AV's are not going to be anything more than a tiny piece of the transportation choices available any time soon, if ever. Yeah, I know, there's a few running in a few cities. Don't hold your breath for the big rollout.

Ninety5rpm

But there are efficiencies that are available to taxis due to frequent use that are not available to private car owners who use their cars relatively infrequently, and these efficiencies amount to cost savings and thus ride fare lowering, even with profits.

But the biggest efficiency will be from car pooling. Lyft has reported that already half of their rides in San Francisco are using their Line (pooled) service. The popularity of pooling can only increase as hailed services increase in popularity, which they surely will with fare drops due to autonomous driving, and so pooling becomes more and more efficient.

Agreed. And that would address only how some of the cars are supplied.

I think holding a car for yourself will be relatively cheap, as the only cost to the company is lost opportunity. The holding price will probably fluctuate - relatively high during peak demand commute times but otherwise probably near zero, since many cars will be sitting idle anyway. So it drops you off at the front of the store. You take your bags, run in and shop. It parks. As you check out you summon it so it's waiting for you as you walk out. Put your stuff in the back and off to the next store. Repeat. It's even easier than shopping with your own car because you don't have to park and walk to and from parking.

Maybe.

Ninety5rpm

What do you envision as the insurmountable obstacles?

CliffordK

Hmmm...
Reminds me of Egypt.

Once you get a Taxi, you can't get rid of them. They won't let you pay at the end of a one-way ride. Rather, they'll be patiently waiting for you to go tour some ruins and come back.

And, they'll wait for you at the hotel the next day, whatever hour you roll out of bed.

But, it all depends, in part whether new infrastructure can be built. For a city with say 100,000 people, perhaps one would need 10,000 taxis. That is a lot of taxis. And, even with that, there would likely be rush hour conflicts and surcharges. New York, of course, has a lot of taxis (as well as Uber and Lyft). But, it would take a whole new infrastructure across the USA, as well as a huge influx of capital.

So, sure, one might be able to afford to have a car wait at 10:00 AM and 8:00 PM, but they won't want cars sitting in parking lots during peak hours. Will the people like variable rate schedules?

Ninety5rpm

Hailed ride services already used variable rate schedules. Uber calls it surge pricing.

Even if 10% of a population is on the road at peak time, that's when single person ride rates will be highest, and pooling will be most popular, so one car for each of those in that 10% will not be required.

jefnvk

Agreed. The only thing that it will affect is those who cycle out of lack of other option, not those who cycle out of desire.

02Giant 

There is no "Driving Age" for an autonomous vehicle.

The will be no to minimal change. People will still be operating motor vehicles on the roads.

Ninety5rpm

Driving age will not be relevant in a car without a human driver.

Bandera

Most of my time/mileage on a bicycle is spent in the Sport of Cycling, no flavor of any vehicle would affect that in any way.
Errands on my town bike would be similarly unaffected.

Total effect of AV on bicycle use = 0.

-Bandera

Ninety5rpm

Some follow-up, if I may.

Do you think it's possible that you'll find autonomous hailed rides so cheap and convenient that you'll find yourself not using your own personal car much at all anymore, until you realize you don't even need it? Why or why not?

Assuming you do sell all your personal cars so your only options will be to use a hailed car or bike or walk, do you think your choice to bike will be more likely than when you still owned a car?