sprince

Looking at the start list I see Evans, Basso, Hesjedal, Quintana, Uran, and Rodriguez as the favorites. Evans, Basso, Hesjedal, Quintana, and Uran haven't shown great form up to this point. So I'd have to go with Rodriguez. Would have picked him anyway, since he's been the most consistent rider over the past 4 years and the course really suits him with 4 uphill finishes in the last week.

jyl

If Quintana is on form, he's the most likely winner. We really have no idea of his form, after winning the Tour de San Luis he's not raced much. But he is a top climber, decent TT, strong team, suited to the mountainous route.

I think Rodriguez is a punchy climber with a strong finish, not sure he is up there with the best on long climbs. Something like Quintana, he won a stage race early in the season, and hasn't produced much since.

Evans started the year with good form at the Tour Down Under, and seems to be getting better with the Giro del Trentino win. I don't think he can keep up with the very best on the long climbs, but his steady experience could help him avoid problems and capitalize on others' mistakes.

Basso doesn't seem in the same class as the others. Hesjedal hasn't done much in the past year. Uran lacks team support.

Those are my three front-runners. I'm picking Quintana and gambling that he's been training hard in the Colombian mountains and not staying up too late changing diapers.

MinnMan

Evans could be the last man standing if Quintana or Rodriguez lose time to crashes or have other poor luck, but I don't think he can compete with them on the climbs. Quintana has the most raw skill, probably, but he's young and perhaps less cagey? I'll give Purito the edge.

jyl

SPOILER ALERT - don't scroll down



































Rodriguez 1:33 down and Quintana 0:55 down after TTT - Evans just 0:07 down and Uran just 0:05 down, from winner Orica Greendge . . . poor Dan Martin . . .

Ken Brown

After the team time trial I have to go with Quintana or Evans. I like Rodriguez but he is already down after the TTT. Uran has not been in good form. Old man Evans just might do it.

Are Dan Martin's bike handling skills not up to snuff or has he just been unlucky this year? Everybody went around that same corner in Liege and only Dan went down.

sprince

Yeah, Katusha made a pretty sad showing in the TTT. I wouldn't count out Uran though. All he has to do now is not lose time, and he does have arguably the strongest team for support.

hueyhoolihan

thank god whoever posted the spoiler alert!!! i was in the middle of watching the 2nd stage and i assume it was with respect to it. i've been burnt before on this forum and appreciate the notice.

Gallo

I like Nario he did a good job last year as de facto Captain. The climbs this year are late and the Giro always seems to favor climbers. The TT on Grappa should have sorted the field at that stage but the finish on Zoncolan provides any climber close a chance for one last attack.

birgirbj

I dont think long climbs are going to hurt Evans. He showed exellent form on long climbs in the Giro del Trentino. On stage 2 he took 4. place on a 15 km (6,9 % avr) mountaintop finish and then fifth on stage 4, 20 km (avr 8%) mountaintop finish. Of course he did not have this set of opponents and he is probably not going to gain time on his rivals on the mountain stages but I think he could defend well. My outside pick would be Wout Poels. He did good in the Vuelta of the Basque country, althougt he was working for Uran and he's coming into this race with rested legs.

MinnMan

There are two ITTs coming, and these could hurt Evans

thechemist

I think possivivo(sp) has a great shot and I'd like to see him win. I don't think Evans has a shot...top five if he is lucky. Quintana is the obvious pick

MinnMan

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(Taking my cue from jyi)






































OK, Rodriguez won't be a factor. Uran Uran has a good chance now, and Quintana is still in striking distance. So is Basso. But Evans is looking far better than I expected. As they say, it's his to lose.

(Added later: The thing about Evans is that he doesn't seem to make mistakes. He's not the most colorful rider and I can' t recall when I've seen him give an overpowering performance, but he may just be the best GC strategist in the peloton.)

Gallo

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This quote is looking brilliant right now. Pozzovivo move today was shrewd. If Quintana is to contend he needs to chip away at Evans. Moviestar has to get someone in a break and have Nario attack Cadel. I do not think you will see Evans lose much in any given day. BMC did a very good job managing the big boys today. Classic race strategy. Now Pozzovivo is on their list as well really smart and strong ride today

sprince

Would be nice to see Evans get another grand tour, but I think age is not on his side. It is the Giro, and aside from being the most beautiful race it may also be most the most unforgiving. The final week is truly brutal, and for a 37 year old with 20 years of top-level racing in his legs, it would be an amazing feat not to lose some time in the final week to the other contenders, all at least 6 years younger.

MinnMan

Just sayin....

Now it's interesting anyway.

sprince

Yes it is, if not as interesting as it would have been with Purito. But considering these upcoming stages, even Quintana is not out of it at 3 1/2 minutes down. Should be a great week of racing.

Caretaker

I think an American will win.

MinnMan

I'm pretty sure that that's a subtle joke that has gone over my head, but the only way i can parse it is to consider that Colombia is in the Americas.

Caretaker

Obviously not too subtle.

Zinger

Well now this is getting interesting. I'd love to see a Colombian win it but I ain't counting Evans out just yet.

Caretaker

Quintana.

He's getting stronger and there's a whole pile of mountain stages coming up including an ITT up the Monte Grappa on Friday.

Zinger

His health would certainly have to hold up if he's going to make up 2:40.....Getting very interesting though.

MinnMan

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Great call!

jyl

When is the last time a GC contendor took >4 minutes out of the racer leader in a single stage? And Uran didn't even bonk. Maybe confusion over neutralization of the descent contributed but most of that gain was on the climb.

Zinger

Wow

Impressive