TDF 2010 stage 17 - Pau - Col du Tourmalet 174 km, Thu. Jul 22
07-20-10, 06:45 PM
#26
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: SoCal
Posts: 1,636
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
FWIW my best guess is that similar to 15, Saxo will set a strong tempo in a (somewhat) vain attempt to dampen Astana's firepower, and Andy will attack shortly after the last Saxo domestique peels off. It's possible, unfortunately, that this could happen too early on the climb.
It's also possible Astana will move to the front (as they have the MJ), in which case I presume Schleck can choose a more advantageous time but will probably be alone (again).
I doubt Schleck will be able to play the same games as earlier, he needs to nab minutes if he's going to have a fighting chance in the TT. But after 2 Tours I don't think I've ever seen either one take much time out of the other -- they're evenly matched. Of course, if Andy digs too deep or lets his desire for Revenge get the better of him, it could make his TT even worse.
We'll see what happens, but my feeling is the end result will be Contador 1, Menchov 2, Schleck 3 -- especially if AC & AS play games on Thursday.
It's also possible Astana will move to the front (as they have the MJ), in which case I presume Schleck can choose a more advantageous time but will probably be alone (again).
I doubt Schleck will be able to play the same games as earlier, he needs to nab minutes if he's going to have a fighting chance in the TT. But after 2 Tours I don't think I've ever seen either one take much time out of the other -- they're evenly matched. Of course, if Andy digs too deep or lets his desire for Revenge get the better of him, it could make his TT even worse.
We'll see what happens, but my feeling is the end result will be Contador 1, Menchov 2, Schleck 3 -- especially if AC & AS play games on Thursday.
One that that I think is vital is AC going into the TT leading. That means he gets the time checks of Andy and he rides. A big advantage. Andy, who has never ridden a great, TT will need to turn himself inside out not knowing if he's doing well enough. AC will have a gauge of exactly how hard he has to push himself. That being said, I think AC will shadow Schleck the whole way. Andy will launch a few. May even drop AC for a few meters, but won't completely shed him. AC won't attack unless he thinks he can get a few more seconds at the finish.
07-21-10, 07:56 AM
#27
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 340
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
SunSwing...LOL...thinking the same thing. AC follows 39 sec behind AS up the Tourmalet and they let the TT decide.
I'm sure that's not what will play out but it was a funny thought.
And AS will have to watch Menchov and Sanchez also.
I'm sure that's not what will play out but it was a funny thought.
And AS will have to watch Menchov and Sanchez also.
07-21-10, 08:17 AM
#28
Upgrading my engine
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Alamogordo
Posts: 6,218
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 125 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
07-21-10, 08:31 AM
#29
Upgrading my engine
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Alamogordo
Posts: 6,218
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 125 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
I hope both Gesink and Menchov are strong at the end. That could turn out to be the most interesting scenario. Send Gesink up the road and see if AS/AC play poker again. Would they rather have two top 10s or risk it all to give Menchov a shot at victory?
I'll really be interested to see how the teams play it. Does Saxo Bank push it hard again and leave Schleck without teammates? Could you imagine if Schleck was left alone but Contador still had Navarro?
Or does Astana kill it with Navarro again to make it harder for Schleck to attack? I think Astana should let Saxo Bank do all the work. I think it's more in Alberto's favor not to drop Sanchez & Menchov.
I'll really be interested to see how the teams play it. Does Saxo Bank push it hard again and leave Schleck without teammates? Could you imagine if Schleck was left alone but Contador still had Navarro?
Or does Astana kill it with Navarro again to make it harder for Schleck to attack? I think Astana should let Saxo Bank do all the work. I think it's more in Alberto's favor not to drop Sanchez & Menchov.
07-21-10, 09:57 AM
#30
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Mount Juliet, TN
Posts: 480
Bikes: T1K
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Another thing working against Andy is Jens is basically one giant road rash. Not sure how effective Jens is going to be at helping Andy. I think at this poin Jens just wants to make it to the finish.
07-21-10, 11:40 AM
#31
Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Paris, France
Posts: 34
Bikes: Lemond Croix de Fer; Kronan (RIP); Trek 850 Antelope; Viva Bellissimo
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
could RadioShack and Saxo Bank work together, in a pact where Lance goes for the stage and Andy puts time into Contador?
07-21-10, 11:59 AM
#32
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Cape Vincent, NY
Posts: 1,392
Bikes: Specialized Tarmac Expert, 2002 TREK 520, Schwinn Mesa WINTER BIKE, Huffy Rock Creek 29er, 1970s-era Ross ten speed. All my bikes are highly modified(except the Tarmac) yet functional, and generally look beat to ****. .
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 68 Post(s)
Liked 88 Times
in
51 Posts
07-21-10, 12:28 PM
#33
Señor Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Hardy, VA
Posts: 17,925
Bikes: Mostly English - predominantly Raleighs
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1491 Post(s)
Liked 1,095 Times
in
641 Posts
Caisse d'Epargne is going to be looking to be in a break. Euskatel will probably try to have a rider or two up the road. The KOM contenders will be out hunting points on the first two climbs. Basso might be looking for a stage. Wouldn't be surprised if Gesink puts in an attack before the last climb if the tempo isn't high enough to discourage it. I think there will be chaos, and not enough cameras on the stage to show all the pieces when they get to the final climb.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
In search of what to search for.
Last edited by USAZorro; 07-21-10 at 12:33 PM.
07-21-10, 12:48 PM
#34
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,957
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
I think rabbobank has been saving it up for today. They wanna get Menchov into 2nd in Paris. Another 45 seconds and I think DM runs him down in the TT.
07-21-10, 03:07 PM
#36
Junior Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 16
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Considering his great ride in the last stage, my guess is that Van Den Broeck will attack in the beginning of the last climb to secure a podium position. They could put Aerts to pull the punch appart to set the stage for VDB.
07-21-10, 03:13 PM
#37
Señor Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Hardy, VA
Posts: 17,925
Bikes: Mostly English - predominantly Raleighs
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1491 Post(s)
Liked 1,095 Times
in
641 Posts
I don't think so either, but there will be plenty of attempts, and several good reasons for teams to put a rider up front before the final climb.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
In search of what to search for.
07-21-10, 03:14 PM
#38
elitist jerk
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Blow - hio
Posts: 4,187
Bikes: CAAD9
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
07-21-10, 03:38 PM
#39
convert
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Bellingham, WA
Posts: 735
Bikes: 1994 Bridgestone XO-4, 2006 Trek 1500
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
07-21-10, 04:21 PM
#40
shedding fat
My prediction is that none of the top 5 will win it. Also, I am almost certain that AC will win the tour without winning a single stage this year. I know it would be fine by me if I was in his shoes. Furthermore, if I was AC, I would not do the tour next year and try to win both, the Giro and the Vuelta instead. Make a bit more history as he is not likely to match 7 tours.
__________________
Arguing with ignorant people is an exercise in futility. They will bring you down to their level and once there they will beat you with their overwhelming experience.
Arguing with ignorant people is an exercise in futility. They will bring you down to their level and once there they will beat you with their overwhelming experience.
07-21-10, 05:25 PM
#41
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,957
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
yeah, those multi-time winners are alomst never talked about.
Hes in line right now for #3 and hes still getting stronger. Another 2-4 is completely possible. So a 5-7 time winner of the TdF and you think winning the Vuelta would give him more of a place in history?
07-21-10, 05:58 PM
#42
shedding fat
What?
yeah, those multi-time winners are alomst never talked about.
Hes in line right now for #3 and hes still getting stronger. Another 2-4 is completely possible. So a 5-7 time winner of the TdF and you think winning the Vuelta would give him more of a place in history?
yeah, those multi-time winners are alomst never talked about.
Hes in line right now for #3 and hes still getting stronger. Another 2-4 is completely possible. So a 5-7 time winner of the TdF and you think winning the Vuelta would give him more of a place in history?
__________________
Arguing with ignorant people is an exercise in futility. They will bring you down to their level and once there they will beat you with their overwhelming experience.
Arguing with ignorant people is an exercise in futility. They will bring you down to their level and once there they will beat you with their overwhelming experience.
07-21-10, 06:28 PM
#43
Senior Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Charlottesville, Virginia
Posts: 1,990
Bikes: Dawes Kalahari, Puch Prima Super Sport, Graham Weigh 853
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time
in
1 Post
I'm not sure that AC will want to win the tour without winning a stage, but I suspect he will bide his time and that USAZorro's description will be apt.
There are big reasons for going in a break, apart from trying for an unlikely stage win. E.g. Charteau, Cunego and Moreau all have in interest in the polka dots. I expect the first climb will be extra fast.
There are big reasons for going in a break, apart from trying for an unlikely stage win. E.g. Charteau, Cunego and Moreau all have in interest in the polka dots. I expect the first climb will be extra fast.
07-21-10, 07:05 PM
#44
Sprockette
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Canada
Posts: 5,503
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
this is a good stage for menchov, or contador...
As much as I like AS i don't think he's as strong as Contador in the mountains...AC has more experience.
I wonder if basso will even start, he's ailing with bronchitis. Otherwise, this would be a good stage for him as well.
As much as I like AS i don't think he's as strong as Contador in the mountains...AC has more experience.
I wonder if basso will even start, he's ailing with bronchitis. Otherwise, this would be a good stage for him as well.
__________________
You can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. That's great...if you want to attract vermin.
You can catch more flies with honey than with vinegar. That's great...if you want to attract vermin.
07-21-10, 07:10 PM
#45
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,957
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
07-21-10, 09:09 PM
#47
shaken, not stirred.
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: The Shaky Isles.
Posts: 5,250
Bikes: I've lost count.
Mentioned: 40 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1412 Post(s)
Liked 971 Times
in
390 Posts
I wonder if Thor will try to get into an early break and whether he can hang with the climbers on the first few hills to try and get some more points. He's admitted that due to his arm injury earlier in the year he has lost some of his sprint speed, but that his climbing has improved.
I would expect Saxobank and Astana to drill it onto the bottom of the Tourmalet to try and burn off all the other GC contendors.
I would expect Saxobank and Astana to drill it onto the bottom of the Tourmalet to try and burn off all the other GC contendors.
__________________
Get a bicycle. You will not regret it if you live. ~Mark Twain, "Taming the Bicycle"
vBulletin: snafu
07-21-10, 09:32 PM
#48
Señor Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Hardy, VA
Posts: 17,925
Bikes: Mostly English - predominantly Raleighs
Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1491 Post(s)
Liked 1,095 Times
in
641 Posts
I wonder if Thor will try to get into an early break and whether he can hang with the climbers on the first few hills to try and get some more points. He's admitted that due to his arm injury earlier in the year he has lost some of his sprint speed, but that his climbing has improved.
I would expect Saxobank and Astana to drill it onto the bottom of the Tourmalet to try and burn off all the other GC contendors.
I would expect Saxobank and Astana to drill it onto the bottom of the Tourmalet to try and burn off all the other GC contendors.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
In search of what to search for.
07-21-10, 09:45 PM
#49
Senior Member
I'm rooting for Andy to do something really special.
__________________
2014 Specialized Roubaix2003 Interloc Impala2007 ParkPre Image C6 (RIP)
2014 Specialized Roubaix2003 Interloc Impala2007 ParkPre Image C6 (RIP)
07-21-10, 11:41 PM
#50
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: San Diego, CA
Posts: 2,606
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Someone needs to lead Andy at least part way up the hill, Saxo Bank blows up way too early. I expect an insane pace from both leaders teams to try to tire the other. Unless Andy can do a real break, meaning not from the front, I don't see him having much of a chance erasing the time. He'd have to hope AC gets tired and that ain't easy. Going to rock tomorrow.