RydeorDie

No riding experience (in last 20 years at least)
2.5 months to train.
35 years old male.
In very good shape.
Best coaching in the world (literally)
Is willing to use PED's or whatever it takes

That is the basic profile of the person trying to do it. I have so many questions if ya'll don't mind me asking this is rather intriguing trying to figure out if it is possible, not really being familiar with biking such a long distance.

The terrain is about a 1100ft incline from start to finish, with some severe climbs/drops just past the half way point. LA to Vegas.

dual650c

314/2 = 157 a day
I'd say the one guy is throwing 600k away... I'd "bet" I could do it at my age and p***poor physical condition.

edited after reading the post below....

TenSpeedV2

Bill Perkins Bets Dan Bilzerian $600,000 He Can't Bike from L.A. To Vegas in 48 Hours | PokerNews

Interesting. Probably not Dan Bilzerian posting here, but there is always that possibility.

RydeorDie

LOL not Dan but someone who has a similar vested interest in the outcome.

We are trying to figure out odds for side bets, but none of us have the knowledge to factor in all the variables to figure it out. It seems doable on paper, but with no real world experience to draw from we are kind of shooting in the dark.

Maelochs

No reason why the guy wouldn't be able to do it if he is already in great shape and has the free time and money for the necessary training. Two 160-mile days even fully loaded wouldn't have fazed me 15 years ago. Plus this guy can have unlimited support vehicles, can take breaks in an air-conditioned van, can get glucose injections, have a masseuse, sleep in a hyperbaric chamber, set up a portable ice-baht/hot tub ... if the guy is really willing to go all-out, then absolutely I would expect him to finish.

Think about it: sixteen hours at ten mph? A couple hours for 20-minute breaks, six hours of sleep .... That's not really a physical but more of a mental endurance thing, and this guy can have a truck blaring his favorite tunes, a coach shouting encouragement, a naked chick on a motorcycle pacing him .... he might not feel good on the third day but I bet he will be in hotel in Vegas.

RydeorDie

Good stuff man.

This is sounding a lot more likely than I thought.

I thought it was more of a coin flip, but it sounds like unless he gets hurt he should be able to do it.

TenSpeedV2

Dude looks like he is pretty good shape. Probably will get a proper bike and a fit and whatever else he finds necessary. It can be done for sure. His lack of saddle time could either hurt or help him.

Homebrew01

Article says 278 miles.
How hilly is it, hills are a killer for novice riders.

RydeorDie

Article is wrong.(that is the "walking" distance) See attachment above it shows the inclines/declines.

CliffordK

Climbing and altitude hit a person pretty hard on a long ride like that one. What time of year? Now? MID SUMMER?

I did 300+ miles in two non-consecutive days last year, and did two consecutive long days about 20 years ago. It is certainly very possible to do. I was hurting the day after my 181 mile last year. Even 20 years ago when I did it, I took a few shortcuts on the second day coming home.

It depends a bit on if they are taking the guy to a bike shop, buying a new bike, then saying see you in 2 days in Vegas.... vs getting the bike and giving him a month or two for training and break-in. Ahh, according to the article, starting around May 31, so about 3 1/2 months... I'd say sure if he puts some time on the bike. He may even be able to do 2 attempts in may.... legal?

Looking at the route (and having driven in the south a couple of times), there is a pretty substantial climb coming out of LA, but that would hit one while the person is still fresh, both good and bad.

If I was doing the ride, I'd plan on riding in 1 day from about LA to Kelso (or so). That would be a very long first day, probably a bit over 200 miles. Then, sleep for 8 to 10 hours or so. Hop back on the bike for the final hill climb, then coast the rest of the way into Vegas.

I think it is very possible for an amateur rider to do. But, I'd hate to have a half a million bucks riding on it.

No sense not going fully supported (food, water, camping equipment, etc all by vehicle). MOTEL. Heck, one could hire a pro team to give draft support.

scott967

RAAM 2015 started on 17 June from San Diego (Oceanside) and the winner averaged 15 mph so about 720 miles in 2 days. Even the 50+ winner did over 10 mph /501 miles in 2 days so obviously it is possible. The question is how he relates to an elite ultra-cyclist. But looking at the start to TS05 (342 miles) 65 of 66 solos beat the speed needed to do 314/48 hours. Not clear if he's allowed to draft. Obviously that would make a big difference.

scott s.
.

Machka 

Well, you're reasonably young, in decent shape, with 2.5 months to train, and the route is about as flat as a person could imagine ...

Yes, you should be able to do 314 miles (505 km) in 48 hours.

As a reasonably fit female, I covered 287.3 miles (462.4 kms) in 24 hours. You could do that, then spend a couple hours covering the last 40 km and have time to spare.

Charlene (Machka) - 2006 UMCA 24-hour Time Trial

dksix

Totally doable, where could I get in on some of the action that bets on the rider? I'm 45, I had smoked (2 packs a day) and my only physical activity was IDPS and some 3 gun when I started riding and was doing 40 miles in a day, after work, in near 100 degree temperate 3 or 4 weeks after I started riding. You say in very good shape (if it is D. Bilzerian) he looks like he spends time in the gym which might or might not help on a bike 16-20 hours a day but if he's used to grinding it out playing cash games I'd say he has the metal toughness to push his body through and go straight start to finish if need be. I think I could do it, do have $600 K to wager but if someone just wants to put up some cash I'd give it a go.

RydeorDie

Some more detail....

He will have the perfect bike, will obviously train from now up to the date he does it. Lance Armstrong offered to training him, and I am sure will tell him what stuff to get on to do it. (Dan is very open about his PED uses past and present, he has no problems doing whatever it takes). He has no job so he can dedicate as much time as he wants to train.

If anyone isn't familiar, this guy went through SEAL training twice. Of course that was over 10? plus years ago, but he is no stranger to mental/physical challenges to say the least.

No drafting, it will be him by himself out there just riding.

He can have any "support" he needs as long as it doesn't involve moving the bike along artificially. I am guessing he will have a vehicle with supplies shadowing him. I doubt he will be weighed down with much of anything other than himself on the bike.

But the "rules" are pretty simple...get from LA to Vegas in that amount of time pretty much. On a bike.

RydeorDie

I just tried to send you a PM but I need to get to 50 posts first lol.

I know plenty of people who think he can't do it, and want to bet it. But I had to do my research first.

We are working out details/odds now. Not happening for a while so no rush.

dksix

Totally doable, as far as the PED's......in the training time frame you're talking and truly "whatever it takes" I'd say some good high grade meth is going to give you more in that aspect than anything. Good high grade meth and I'd say 20 hours is doable (death is also possible, should be taken into account).

CliffordK

Not quite.

The chart above puts it at 11,000 feet of climbing. RWGPS puts it at about 12,000 feet of climbing.

The first 60 miles coming out of LA is about 4000 feet of climbing. Most of it not real steep, but it does add up.

If he does Kelso to Cima, that is another 20 miles and 2000 feet of climbing. Yeah, not real steep, but it does add up.

What direction are the winds?

Apple Valley to Newberry Springs should be a good gentle descent for cranking out a few easy miles.

dksix

You couldn't lay even money that he can't, I'm thinking 5 to 3 in favor that he can be successful. Is there any possibility of beating early completions, are you on the inner circle of the rider?

RydeorDie

He isn't going the hard drugs route, I was talking your standard PED stuff....whatever would help endurance but I have no clue about all that. I'm sure Armstrong has an idea though.

RydeorDie

I'm trying to get those odds in MY favor, there isn't a chance they would be worse than even up. That is the discussion, whether the people who think he CAN do it should get better odds than even money, not the other way around. I am shooting for like +125 or maybe even +150

dksix

I sent you my contact information.

pacalolo

FWIW I know a guy who just did 402.5 in 24 hours at Sebring, plus another that did 365. Obviously well trained. It's doable.

RydeorDie

I got it. I'll keep you posted.

dksix

If you need a quick reply, text. If you're just wanting some advice, email get checked once (after work) and maybe once at night.

Machka 

11,000 ft is a bit different from the 1100 ft he mentioned in his first post.

Anyway, 11000 ft is about 3350 metres, so let's do the math ...

3350 metres/505 km = 0.0066 * 100 = 0.66

Anything under a 1 with that calculation is basically flat ... at least from a Tasmanian perspective.