Dan333SP

There's no shame in latching on to a group of people going faster than you're capable of holding and then dropping off the back to do your own thing once you pop. That's how you get stronger, and 95% of the time if it's people you don't know, they won't even notice that you went off the back.

If you're doing rides at 18mph solo over rolling terrain for ~50 miles, you should be fine hanging on to a group averaging ~22mph, assuming it's a big group so you get plenty of recovery time after rotating to the front.

If you're worried about popping, you can also just opt out of the rotation, though you should be clear with the other riders that this is your intent so they don't sit on your wheel wondering why you're not pulling up the side.

FlashBazbo

It's hard to get a Harley to sustain speeds in excess of 30 mph.

Stratocaster

I think we can all agree that it depends on the type of rims you're using.

ptempel

This was how I met a guy speeding by me on a 29er MTB. I thought, "how the h*ll is this dude doing that speed?" I reeled him in, but with a lot of help from a red light. I then say "hi" and look at his bike and see a battery on the downtube and a beefy bottom bracket. Aaaah, ebike. So the ebikers also make good rabbits but usually just have to let them go. Its all good since its one less car on the road.

To the OP, besides the weather and amount of people in the paceline (or group ride) I think the rider's skill level (fitness) makes a huge difference. A group of continental pros will be laying down a lot more power than a group of local weekend warriors. If you're getting paid to race your bike, then you better be fast.

Bikeracer123

It's flat, okay maybe a little exaggerated but the pace is generally around 27-28 and consistently goes above 30 and will sustain

caloso

I am guessing you're excluding the neutral rollout, regroups, ride back into town too.

kbarch

Honestly, if you happen to average 18 on your own, rides advertised at 20-22 should be a piece of cake, and 24 should be quite do-able. On my own I'm lucky to average more than 15, but I have done group rides averaging 23. But that's in large part because I'm lazy when I ride by myself.

Sy Reene

To clarify, I'll average 18mph on the flats when I'm moving. Over the course of rides, stopping for lights, traffic, intersections, or snacks isn't a part of this. Up hills I suck wind.

Carbonfiberboy 

I think the question, more properly stated, should be how much faster in a paceline than solo for the same effort. My go-to guess when I'm moving up the line is that to hold the effort the same for the drafters, my HR on the front should be ~10 beats higher than when I was 3rd wheel. This assumes riding on the usual shoulderless road and taking ~3-minute pulls, not a rolling paceline. Rolling pacelines are easy because you can just hold the speed. Longer pulls are harder to judge because the terrain and wind is usually changing.

Which doesn't answer the question at all and it's going to vary depending on the speed of the paceline because of the speed cubed factor. So it won't just be simply *X. It also depends on how big the rider in front of you is. At usual club speeds, I think 2-3 mph on the flat.

Bikeracer123

We roll out and warm up for about 6 miles and then it starts, people attack and break away. People get dropped and it is up to them to get back to the group, usually by taking short cut roads. Their is one rest stop at a gas station. The ride finishes on a sprint then every one rides home. I just sit in and hang on for dear life

VNA

Who cares what ever speed--JUST ENJOY!

caloso

Riding in a group is fun. You will go farther and faster than you could ever go by yourself, and if it's a hard ride, you'll push yourself harder than you could ever do by yourself. So, it's natural to wonder if you could hang on with a particular group.

woodcraft

It sound like the real question is: 'will I be able to hang with a group riding X pace?'.

IME, it depends on hills- especially the smaller ones.

If the group is stronger than you, a few rollers can leave you alone with your thoughts.

Carbonfiberboy 

It is an absolute kick. I was the weak rider and eventually became the leader. My advice to newbies who were getting dropped on the little hills: "Hang on to that last wheel until the blood spurts from your eyesockets." 'Cause once it's gone, you'll never get it back. That's what you gotta do to learn to get fast. I rode the last 20 miles or so solo countless times. Now I just ride tandem with my wife and that's fun, too. We have a century tomorrow, 8am. We'll probably be DFL. Bunch of young rando kids . . .

DrIsotope

Local to me, there are a couple of club rides on Saturdays and Sundays where the "A group" does a 40-60 mile circuit with 1,500-2,000ft of climbing in there, and the group typically averages 17-18mph overall-- average being the end of the day average-- speed on the flats would be 21-23mph. I've never gone, but all I can imagine is that for a so-called A-group, it must be a very social affair, because I average the same speed over the same circuit riding it solo.

The very limited amount of time I've spent in pacelines I have found to be absurdly easy. In the middle of a line of just 4-5 bikes, maintaining 25mph on the flats takes even me barely 175W.