WalksOn2Wheels

Just saw this mentioned in the other thread, but thought it warranted it's own space.

How high of a price do you think gas needs to rise before people consider riding a bicycle? The other person mentioned 5 dollars. I'm not sure that would do it, really. It's hovering around 2.80 here and we have some of the lower gas prices in the nation as I understand it. If gas was suddenly 2 dollars more, people would howl at the moon for a few months and then it would be business as usual. It could almost certainly be 5 dollars or more by 2020 I would imagine. Maybe by 2030 or 2035, it could rise to ten bucks, but at that point, I still don't think it would make a huge dent in the driving population.

I think of it as the frog in the boiling water effect. It rises just slowly enough for people to adjust their budget without changing their lifestyle. It would have to more than double overnight for people to re evaluate their situation, but at that point, the people most affected would be the ones with longer commutes, and therefore more likely to not see cycling as an option. And the ones with shorter commutes would just find other ways to cut their spending.

I don't know, what do you think it would take for people to decide to make the jump?

pallen

I think most would buy different cars, move closer to work, and a bunch of other things before thinking of a bicycle. So many of our cities just don't have infrastructures that facilitate the masses commuting on bikes. Most people I talk to think of bike commuting as some kind of fringe, super-risk activity only done by crazy people.

Of course, if the streets get deserted because gas is $10/gal, it might open up some new possibilities...

Pscyclepath

Here in central Arkansas back in the summer of 2008, the breaking point was $3.60 for regular gas. That's when you saw cars getting parked, and a quantum increase in the number of people on the bus and on bikes.

LeeG

it would take more space on the road or bikelanes for the average person to feel safe. A 100% increase in bike riders could put 20 people on the route I ride when there's 2,000 cars going by. So if gas goes to $5/gal I bet car ridership might drop to 1800cars but it really won't feel any safer.

I think that's the basic problem, the roads are set up for cars so folks will adjust their driving down or car pool, as they are doing already but that doesn't make the decision to ride a bike any more attractive.

I bet more $1500 mopeds will show up on the road than cyclists when gas goes up. Even at $10/gal the 3hp the moped has is 10x more than the average person will put out. Do the math, $500 commuter bike at 10-15mph or $1500moped at 25mph. Gas is still cheap at $10/gal. for the energy it can provide.

BarracksSi

Here it was $4/gal, and again, that was in 2008. Many of them haven't given up since then. I now see bikes on the street every time I go outside.

Arcanum

The gas prices are already having a effect. The higher the price gets, the greater the effect will be. A more interesting question is where that trend levels off due to riding to work being impractical. Yes, it's technically possible to ride 30 miles to work every day, but that doesn't mean it's feasible for most people.

alan s 

I think most people would give up just about everything to pay for gas. The sky's the limit. The alternative for most would not be a bike, but public transportation.

DogBoy

The alternative for most becomes 50 - 125cc scooters from what I've seen around here.

pallen

I do see bike commuting continuing to gain momentum slowly even with stable gas prices - heck, I started doing it in 2010 when gas was cheap. My motivation had nothing to do with gas prices. I just wanted to have fun on the way to work and realized it was more doable than I thought. I don't see it becoming "normal" for a long time though.

Aeneas

The last time gas went up, I saw more people selling their boats and PWC than biking on Long Island. Public transportation did report more users, but service is terrible given the population. Unfortunately, the transit infrastructure here is about getting people in and out of NYC rather than across the island and since the place is a giant suburb, few people make sensible choices regarding where they live relative to where they work. Even if gas went to $10/ gallon, there would be MANY more cars than bikes around here...
That said, I know lots of people who ride 6 months a year and extend the season depending on gas prices. However winter weather and early darkness compound to make a lot of cyclists very uncomfortable at this time of year so even though gas prices are in the $3.30s right now, fewer people are riding than would be riding if it were April.

CACycling

Living in Southern California, the car is supreme. I've got plenty of coworkers that live 30 - 60 miles away and make that drive every day. I've never lived over 5 miles from work and can't imagine spending that much time (and money) commuting. Short of moving or changing jobs, there isn't a lot these people can do but suck it up and pay the price. Much of SoCal is like that and SUVs are still the vehicle of choice. People may limit trips where possible but I don't see a major change in attitude any time soon.

himespau 

I think there's going to be a gradual moving closer to work and more public transit use long before bicycle commutership gets a significant increase.

shouldberiding

Never, ever underestimate the laziness of the American people.

Most folks wouldn't think of using a bicycle as their main form of transportation unless they lost their driver's license or couldn't afford to own a car.

DGozinya

It will never be high enough. If gas gets to be so high that people can't fill their tanks, then it makes economic sense that companies can capitalize on that problem and create new cars. Suddenly EV/hybrids/alt fuel technology as a class ISN'T as costly compared to big oil. If gas is truly that expensive, Ford, GM, Toyota, etc, etc, will dump billions (trillions?) of dollars into r&d, much more so than today. You might begin to see instead of one or two token vehicles per badge that are new tech, that there are multiples of these cars. The lineup will begin to look like the cars of today in that there will be "classes" of cars...bare bones commuter, family sedan, luxury, sports, etc.
Will this change biking? Yes, some, but it won't suddenly make the roads fill up with bikes. We're fat and lazy and we're not giving up our "right" to the automobile anytime soon, no matter what the price of gas becomes. Other items will take a back seat (ha) to finance the filling of our tanks.

xtrajack

For me, personally, it was 4.08/gal. I agree with himespau and shouldberiding, most folk wouldn't/won't consider bicycling to work unless or until there aren't any other options left to them.

RJM

Around my parts, about $6.50 per gallon. That's my guess. When gas went high a few years ago people still were driving around their pickups and SUVs, and the average person around here probably makes less than 10 bucks an hour. No public transport either. Part of the problem is laziness, part is absolutely no bicycle infrastructure, part is the fact that a large portion think that bikes don't belong on the road and part is the feeling they are entitled to drive wherever they want.

AdamDZ

I think in NYC transit saw higher use and there were more people on bikes when it hit $4/gallon. But then MTA raised the fares and people went back to their cars. At that price I thought twice about longer weekend trips and I limited city driving. As it happened I was already biking a lot so it was easier for me. Also, I normally don't drive a lot: 44k miles in 6 years.

snowman40

I refuse to pay $4, not sure what everyone else's threshold is. At that point, food prices start to go up and food is more important than gasoline.

irwin7638

I agree, an analyst on CNBC this morning predicted $4.50 per gallon would be the tipping point, not for people to start cycling, but to drive less. They will spend three times as much as they should on an electric car thinking they are saving money before they will get off their lazy butts.
Here's a piece I wrote in a local paper about just that.
https://simplecycle-marc.blogspot.com...ng-biking.html

snowman40

Yup, that about sums it up. O well, if they do that, maybe there will be less SUVs on the road....

LeeG

face it, if a person has $30k in a vehicle to drive 20miles to a $40k job it would make a lot more sense to find a passenger to split gas costs than ride 20miles. The price of gas and the motivation to commute by bike aren't that connected. A friend of mine in the 80's commuted to work, but he was a Cat2 racer and used the commute for training. He could have driven his BMW like other folks in his job. We're 50yrs from the time when bicycles become worthwhile commuter vehicles.

travelmama

There is no need in asking or thinking about it because there will never be an answer. People like cars too much to care.

Froghunter

Well...I guess I'm not like most or average, but I made my choose at a lifestyle change when it hit 3 dollars a gallon two weeks ago. I got the old beater Next cleaned and fitted up. Been commutting the one mile since Monday the 3rd of January. Tomorrow I am going to pick-up the new Raleigh Clubman and the wife's new Route 4.0. Tomorrow night the Ford F-250 will be listed for sale on craiglist. I can afford the gas, but it's the principle with me and the common sense. In the longrun I think we will be happier people. We will still have the Ford Escape and the wife is planning to start commutting by bicyle when the weather is better.

Froghunter

fietsbob

US city planning has made city to Exurbia ~suburbia and all that was made around car sales
the transportation infrastructure has been Privatized,

Note how GM was not forced to rebuild public transportation as a part of the bail out,
in spite of their being amongst the responsible parties for having torched the trolleys in many cities
to force the sale of buses ..

rex_kramer

People will continue to spend all their hard-earned money on gas as long as their cars require it. Driving is ingrained, ego, status and a God-given right. It's like the NRA for motor vehicles...

"You can have my car when you pry my cold, dead fingers from the steering wheel."

Once gas gets around $3.50 a gallon, people will start stealing it again. And I'll leave an hour earlier for work, burn about 500 calories, get fresh air, reduce my stress and watch everyone else fight for a spot at the cheapest gas station.