Impact of Pandemic on Racing
#51
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Funny we were posting similar at the same time. Statista wants $59/month from me, so I have to search a lot. I have been keeping my own spreadsheet and seeing the trends.
I really want to see the influenza trends which I expect will be way down from the 20K so deaths in the USA due to the behavior changes forced on the population. I expect auto accidents to go down too.
I really want to see the influenza trends which I expect will be way down from the 20K so deaths in the USA due to the behavior changes forced on the population. I expect auto accidents to go down too.
No telling what the Oct-May 2019/2020 season's results might be, when all's tallied. I suspect you're correct, that the numbers are likely to be down somewhat, though technically since the flu season doesn't begin, again, until October, it's hard to predict whether close-contacts starting in October will be fewer. Likely, folks who didn't have a "keep your distance" protocol previously will still have a much-stricter regimen come October. We'll see.
As for comparing stats on things: indeed, it'd be nice if all nations and states reported per-capita rates along with the raw numbers. Else, people are forced to figure it out prior to appreciating the meaningfulness of a given number. As with traffic fatalities, for example, knowing how many is all well and good, but knowing the fatality per-capita rate is vital if one is to appreciate the relative risk of that activity. Until the COVID-19 stuff gets put into such terms, it's not going to be easy to see comparative impacts across states or nations.
As well, just knowing the number of hospitals, hospitalizations, recoveries and deaths doesn't say anything about a given nation's effectiveness in the area: of doctors and nurses, of triage, of procedural effectiveness, of prior experience, of how full or stressed the pipeline is for supplies and treatments (ie, lack of antivirals, lack of respiratory assists [machines, O2 delivery masks], blood products, or even lack of TP/gauze). The numbers might be high, but if a given nation's got stellar staff, procedures and inventories ...
Interesting problem. A painful readjustment of appreciation for the risks and "cures," at all levels. Hopefully good learning comes from it, in all societies.
#52
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The whole per capita part is being ignored in most the social postings I read.
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.
I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.
To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.
In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.
The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.
Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.
Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,
I don't have the daily number for Italy, but what I have seen on Facebook or both countries going from 1000-6000 in the same period of time is not the same rate, just like and increase of 10,11,12,13 is not the same rate as 50,51,52,53.
These posts and stats I've seen ignore the base - in this case the population. As much as 40% of the US deaths were due to external sources - boats, an identified individual bringing it in.
I also was hearing that we may all be carriers, we don't know. A pile of tests Sunday @ Hoag Hospital of folks feeling sick, coughing, runny noses - they couldn't find a carrier. The testing thing is difficult. It is hard to test 350 million people to find those 6,500 that have it. I'm sure it is more than 6,500, but I don't but this "we may all be carriers" thing.
To me the rate that matters is deaths per capita, and then the geographic location. The rate of deaths is too new a stat.
In the USA as of March 18 10:34 EDT there are 116 fatal cases. The WA elderly from one rest home and several from a cruise ship contribute a significant amount to that.
The first death from a USA caught infection was Feb 29 - 18 days ago. A rate of deaths/USA population/days since 1st death ~ nothing.
The rate of deaths in the states I live in goes between 1/day to 0 per day (CA has 11, CO 2). The rate based on population 11/39,000,000/14days = .00000002 deaths per capita per day in CA. and less in CO.
Not that any deaths are OK, and not that this could not grow and maybe what we have done will reduce contagion, but I'm far from panic as to the virus itself. It could be bad, it could get bad. It is not bad now.
That stock market, and being restricted are much bigger issues.
Right now the states I live in - CA and CO,
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
then realize that apparently the Wuhan lockdown was started when only a few hundred cases were reported. They managed to end it at 80k cases. and the US is not even close to the level of measured the chinese took to stop the spread.
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#53
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Check out this website for stats per country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the table view also reports cases / capita.
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
then realize that apparently the Wuhan lockdown was started when only a few hundred cases were reported. They managed to end it at 80k cases. and the US is not even close to the level of measured the chinese took to stop the spread.
Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
then realize that apparently the Wuhan lockdown was started when only a few hundred cases were reported. They managed to end it at 80k cases. and the US is not even close to the level of measured the chinese took to stop the spread.
They show Cases/1M pop - USA 23, yesterday 19. USA adding cases at a rate of 4/day/1M people (based on one day) while Italy 521->591 or 70/day/1M
So Italy is adding cases 17X the rate of the USA.
Again - cases, not deaths.
Part of the reason may be as simple as population density.
Wuhan - population density of 3,200/sq mile
Italy - population density 520/sq mi
USA (since we are comparing USA) 93/sq mile
Certain USA cities are as high as 27,000/sq mile, but it is the USA that is being compared to Wuhan, or to Italy.
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#54
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Check out this blogpost for some real number crunching: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca
Maybe thanks to the actions.
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Gary K.
What you need to understand.
Are you Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don’t understand...
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.