WhyFi

Surveys with self-selected respondents are never representative of populations or segments as a whole. IOW, the ~69% vaccination rate is an assumption that shouldn't be made; these people came from far and wide and, most importantly, they choose to gather and, as such, can be seen as self-selective and non-representative.

Kapusta

Mental gymnastics... you mean math? The authors of that report seem to understand those"mental gymnastics" perfectly well, and come to the same conclusion: without knowing the percent of vaccination in the population, you can't tell much in terms of vaccine efficacy. And the 69% figure is NOT the figure for the people in the gathering, so stop throwing it out there. We don't know what that figure is. Until you know what the vaccination rate is among the people in those gatherings, you are left trying to compare two fractions (rate of infection of vaxed vs rate of infection of unvaxed) without knowing the denominators.

The math I showed was simply an example.

Maybe, maybe not. But that could apply to the un-vaccinated as well. Again, we don't know. I assume the discussion does not mention this part because it is not relevant to the conclusions they are drawing or the data they are discussing (which are breakthrough infections).

The authors of that article had good reason to reject the conclusion that you are drawing from it (that the vaccine does not reduce the chance of becoming infected). Whether you want to understand it is up to you.

Wise move. I am doing the same

BHG6

That "nonsense" came directly from the Director of the CDC.....take it as you wish.

My question is simple...Why worry about everyone else's vaccination status if you're already vaccinated?

nomadmax 

I still go on group rides and will continue to do so. I've had both Moderna vaxes and when a booster becomes available I'll get that too. Maybe I'll grow a horn out of my head or I'll become an unwitting assasin for the government. But I got some bad news for them, if it's a mind control drug, they wasted their money on me.

Bottom line, I'm not crazy and I still take precautions, but 30 days after I got my second shot, I got back to my regular life.

WhyFi

Because you may have loved ones that can't be vaccinated, for various reasons.

terrymorse 

And here we have some of the mental gymnastics I was referring to.

I assumed that the 69% vaccination rate was the reported number for Massachusetts. I was right.

I also assumed that the reported population of positive cases were all residents of the area. Not visitors from "all over the United States". The visitors were long gone by the time the cases started to rise. Also right.

I don't understand how these are "self-selected respondents". These are cases. In a specific location. Taken from the population as a whole.

I guess the only "self-selection" was choosing to be in proximity to large gatherings with people from out of town.

Here's one clear "self-selection": these people chose to get tested, because they had symptoms.

Seattle Forrest

​​​​​​I got the Pfizer shot. It tested at 95% effective back in the day. It's less effective now, because the strains going around today didn't exist when it was tested, and Delta is better at spreading. I think Israel puts the mRNA vaccines at around 65% effectiveness. But let's not split hairs, the point is it's not 100% effective. Being vaccinated means I'm safer, it doesn't mean I'm safe.

Now if I only surround myself with people who are also vaccinated, it means I'm less likely to run into an infected person. And then I don't have to test my luck.

Plus, "effective" means keeping you out of the hospital, not keeping the virus out of your body. It may or may not help with that, we aren't really sure yet. I don't want to be the reason someone else got sick.

Kapusta

My question is simple...Why worry about everyone else's vaccination status if you're already vaccinated?

If you go back and follow the conversation. Larry stated “Not sure why you worry about other riders being vaccinated or not”

The implication being that you are at equal risk of infection from a group of vaccinated people and unvaccinated people.

THAT is nonsense, and the CDC most certainly is NOT saying that.

What they are saying is that it looks like INFECTED people spread the desease equally regardless of vax status.

But they also say that vaccines will reduce the likelihood of becoming. Infected. Therefore the group of vaxed people are less likely to have an infected individual. Thus less likely to expose you.

I hate to sound like a broken record here, but holy crap it is frustrating that such basic information is so deeply misunderstood. To be fair, I think the CDC and the Media don’t do a good job of explaining things to the general public..

Because it is not 100% effective. It reduces chances of infection, not eliminate it. And guess what? If I do get infected, I could infect others.

Also, we still don't know the long term effects of COVID. It can have some pretty weird long term effects.

So yeah, I would rather reduce the chances of that happening.

BHG6

There are many reasons why people can't or won't take a vaccine (especially an unapproved experimental one) and there will be hundreds of millions of people around the world who will remain unvaccinated regardless. That's a simple fact of life.
Those who can't or won't get vaccinated will have to protect themselves accordingly. Self-preservation is a real thing

BHG6

That quote was from Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the Director of the CDC....

terrymorse 

That is not my conclusion. My conclusion is that the Delta variant is readily transmitted to--and among--the vaccinated, and that a vaccinated but infected person probably transmits the virus as easily as an unvaccinated person.

Gazing into my crystal ball of speculation: given how contagious the new variant is, I predict that just about everyone eventually will become infected. The only individual differences will be the severity of the symptoms.

Kapusta

Regarding the out of state part... I don't think that is actaully relevant to what YOU are interested in here.

But back to the 69% number. Just because that is the number for that county (or is it Mass as a whole? does not matter) does NOT mean that is what it was for the gathering that they attribute the cluster to, even if they were all from Mass. Those could be two very different numbers. My county has a vax rate of something like 70% of adults. However, those numbers are not distributed evenly. If my nieghborhood had a block party, there would be a couple hundred people gathered with an adult vax rate of close to 100%. Go out in some rural parts of the county, and a gathering might be more like 50%.

WhyFi

Cool - I'll inform my 4-year-old to HTFU. Thanks.

Kapusta

Dude, you are either deeply confused or trolling.

Yes, that quote is from her, but it is not saying that you are at equal risk from vaccinated and unvaccinated people. Why would she say that? It makes absolutely no sense.

WhyFi

"Only"?

Kapusta

You said:
And then used the Mass gathering as an example that puts mine (and the CDC's) assertion into doubt.

That case does NOT put that assertion into doubt. It neither supports nor refutes the assertion. And the authors of the case study say this.

If what you meant was that the delta variant is incredibly contagious and even the vaccinated are at risk.... I completely agree.

BHG6

You might want to read the quote again.....

"They found that the amount of virus in the noses and throats of vaccinated infected people was nearly "indistinguishable" from what was found in unvaccinated people, confirming what some experts have suspected. The increased viral load associated with the Delta variant appears to make vaccinated people equal spreaders of the virus."

So why bother worrying about the vaccination status of others if vaccinated people can transmit the virus just as easily? They may not know they're infected just like most of the non-vaccinated carriers.
Protect yourself and your loved ones and stop worrying so much about everyone else.

My best friend, his wife, and his 6 year all old boy got Covid despite being fully vaccinated (Pfizer) (kid wasn't vaccinated). Saying vaccinated people can't transmit the virus is pure nonsense.

Harassing and bullying people who have genuine concerns about these vaccines won't encourage them to get vaccinated any quicker. As matter of fact, it will probably make them dig in even deeper.

pgjackson

It's a virus. There is no cure. The "vaccine" doesn't prevent it like the polio or measles vaccine prevent and eradicate those diseases. Covid is with us forever, just like Swine Flu.

Seattle Forrest

Let's not get this sent to P&R. This is an important question to a lot of cyclists and sharing not ideologically driven info and thoughts about how to interpret it is useful to this community. Thanks! 🙂

MinnMan

Well, look what I started..... not that I am surprised.

Really folks. It's clear that there are divergent opinions about various aspects of the pandemic and the vaccines.

Many of you are quite passionately certain about conclusions on topics for which there are as yet few data. Even the "good" studies about Delta (whichever they may be) are fragmentary and small. There are more questions than answers at that point. Some people need to jump to answers.

I'm mainly interested in how this is affecting all of your group riding - not at all, no more- full stop, still doing it but giving it some thought (me), etc.. I hear quite a bit of all three.

Finally, I'll just say that the changes in the direction of the pandemic that we've seen in the last month are both significant and saddening. Without suggesting any particular action, any thoughtful person should consider what that means for themselves and their community.

MoAlpha

Right about measles vaccine, but inactivated polio vaccine (used in the US now) prevents systemic infection while allowing the virus to replicate in the gut if it’s there. Many vaccines do not provide “sterilizing” immunity.

Kapusta

No, YOU need to read it again. She is talking about INFECTED vaccinated people compared to INFECTED unvaccinated people. This is clearly stated (highlighted in red since you missed it). She is not talking about ALL vaccinated and unvaccinated people, just the INFECTED ones.

So yes, going on a ride with a group of INFECTED vaccinated people is the same risk as going on a ride with a group of INFECTED unvaccinated people.

However, a group of vaccinated people are less likely to be infected in the first place (this is also according to the CDC) So the risk from the vaccinated is lower. This is 100% consistent with the quote you are posting. (I know you know this and are just trolling at this point, but I feel like it cannot be restated enough).

Kapusta

Yes, that would be nonsense,

Which is why nobody here is saying it.

urbanknight

Too many people decide what they WANT to be true and then cling to anything that supports their desire while rejecting anything that does not. I'm trying to be as informed as possible, but there's so much we don't know, there's tons of misinformation being spread, and there's tons of factors changing as things evolve.

terrymorse 

Polio and measles are caused by viruses, also.

Measles is still active, over 100,000 die yearly from it. A single measles vaccine is 93% effective.

There is no need to put scare quotes around vaccine. The COVID-19 shots are legitimately vaccines. The 2-dose Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective.