Will Andy Schleck Ever Win The TDF?
07-25-11, 08:26 AM
#26
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great, more fodder for next years tdf schleck love affair.
07-25-11, 08:40 AM
#27
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Andy...Andy...Andy. Frank lost 2 min to Andy on the Galibier by marking the other riders. He finished 1 min down on Andy and 2:30 on Evans for final GC. If Frank wasn't his brother's keeper he would have better results as a pro-cyclist.
07-25-11, 09:05 AM
#28
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07-25-11, 09:09 AM
#29
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I never thought Evans would win, but he was able to put it all together. Ever since his Worlds win he's been a changed man.
5 years from now, who knows? Andy could do the same thing.
5 years from now, who knows? Andy could do the same thing.
07-25-11, 09:16 AM
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I was looking at the history of Tour winners from a TT perspective. Some of the riders I don't know about for sure (like Pantani), but it looks like all of them a least back to Lemond were won by riders with very good, if not dominating, TT skills.
Unless Andy improves his TT I think it will be hard.
Unless Andy improves his TT I think it will be hard.
If AS hhas a stage like that while still in contention I'd say he will win the TDF.
Bahamontes was not a good TT rider, a great climber and he won a Tour. I believe he also liftend his TT. Again not to great, or even good, but decent was good enough.
07-25-11, 11:16 AM
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So the answer is yes but not likely. He's just not the total package. However, I wonder if he would do better by concentrating his training on his weaknesses instead of his strengths. If he could improve his ITT ability he would be the much more dangerous.
07-25-11, 11:27 AM
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Of course anythings possible. But look at it like this. This years course was ideal for him with only one ITT. He had good luck in that he avoided almost all of the early stage crashes. He has some very strong riders and a climbing brother who can help him out. Still he does not win. If he should have a little bad luck and there was another ITT he would likely fair even worse.
So the answer is yes but not likely. He's just not the total package. However, I wonder if he would do better by concentrating his training on his weaknesses instead of his strengths. If he could improve his ITT ability he would be the much more dangerous.
So the answer is yes but not likely. He's just not the total package. However, I wonder if he would do better by concentrating his training on his weaknesses instead of his strengths. If he could improve his ITT ability he would be the much more dangerous.
07-25-11, 11:31 AM
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Or admit his weaknesses and plan accordingly. If Armstrong went into a final TT 1 minute up he could be reasonably secure. AS is not secure 2 minutes up. If his TT does not improve he needs to ride to be up significant time. He cannot play the stay out of yellow game. He needs the lead in hte first mountians set and needs to keep building on it.
07-25-11, 12:34 PM
#34
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Or admit his weaknesses and plan accordingly. If Armstrong went into a final TT 1 minute up he could be reasonably secure. AS is not secure 2 minutes up. If his TT does not improve he needs to ride to be up significant time. He cannot play the stay out of yellow game. He needs the lead in the first mountians set and needs to keep building on it.
The problem with that is Contador. If Contador is healthy and on form, he can climb as well as Schleck. Andy can train his ass off for TTs, but he's never going to be as good as one of the naturals like Contador or Evans.
07-25-11, 12:40 PM
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I don't see Schleck ever winning. Needs to spend the Winter getting better against the clock. If the Chicken got better, maybe he can. He would have had his hands full if half the herd didn't crash out or ride injured. I agree they need to do something with the beginning of this race. I didn't even turn it on till stage 8.
07-25-11, 12:45 PM
#36
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Pantani was a poor TT rider. But in the Tour he won he lifted his TT. Not to great, but a significant improvement. In the Tour he also had a stage where he put over 2 minutes on everyone who even vaguely counted (perhaps everyone, I'm not going to look it up) and abotu 8 minutes on Jan Ulrich, the eventual second place rider. If AS hhas a stage like that while still in contention I'd say he will win the TDF.
Bahamontes was not a good TT rider, a great climber and he won a Tour. I believe he also liftend his TT. Again not to great, or even good, but decent was good enough.
Bahamontes was not a good TT rider, a great climber and he won a Tour. I believe he also liftend his TT. Again not to great, or even good, but decent was good enough.
07-25-11, 12:56 PM
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Look who's on Andy's team, if he can't learn from Stewie, Jens and Sparticus he will never win the tour
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07-25-11, 12:57 PM
#38
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07-25-11, 01:37 PM
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This year's route was tailor-made for Andy to win. Unless they eliminate the TT completely, I don't see him winning. If they go back to two ITTs or even one ITT and a prologue, he's done.
But, lets face it . . . Andy wasn't on his best form this season (except, mysteriously, for two TdF stages). Who knows why.
But, lets face it . . . Andy wasn't on his best form this season (except, mysteriously, for two TdF stages). Who knows why.
His team was almost perfect in their support.
And yet when someone analyzed the climbs against past years it seemed to show that AS (and AC too) had gone up slower this year (CE has maintained the same climb speed for a few years) than past years.
If he gets over his AC fixation he has a better chance to win but as time passes on other hot shots show up on the scene.
So my guess is: no.
07-25-11, 01:43 PM
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Me either. Also, Andy was way off form in the tour de swiss. Even Phil Ligget said during the TDS that Andy was going to have trouble in the TDF.
07-25-11, 02:03 PM
#44
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Andy needs to grow a pair and start attacking much earlier. If a pure climber wants to win the tour, he needs to attack on every climb until he has enough time to concede in the ITT. If it takes the entire tour, then so be it. Hanging back and spending most of the time you're in front constantly turning and looking behind for your brother ain't gonna make it.
07-25-11, 02:08 PM
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Andy will never win the tour unless he reads and takes to heart the pearls of wisdom being tossed about like confetti by accomplished riders here on BF.
07-25-11, 02:30 PM
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Yeah Pantani is a rare case of such a bad time trialist winning the Tour. He lost close to 8 minutes on Ullrich over the three time trials. Including a 181st place in the Prologue, LOL. But his climbing - particularly the Les Deux Alpes stage - won him the Tour. (Ullrich finished the stage 9 minutes behind him!) But I don't know if we'll ever see such a crushing ride in a mountain stage in the Tour ever again. If not for the awful weather on the Galibier, he probably wouldn't have won the Tour even that year.
Last edited by Dolomiti; 07-25-11 at 02:34 PM.
07-25-11, 03:49 PM
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Miguel Indurain was taller. He seemed to do ok in the TT.
07-25-11, 03:55 PM
#50
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1 SCHLECK, Andy (LEOPARD-TREK) 6h 07' 56"
2 SCHLECK, Frank (LEOPARD-TREK) + 02' 07"
3 EVANS, Cadel (BMC RACING) + 02' 15"