dscheidt

You're the first person I've ever heard moaning about a carbon shortage.

acidfast7

lol

you must hang out with people not in-the-know.

propene (usually from fossil fuels) --> acrylonitrile --> polyacrylonitrile (PAN) --> CF

basically, most of our (humans) chemical synthesis is currently based upon fossil fuels ... and as we all know ... this is a limited resource ... therefore, over time, CF will become MORE expensive to synthesize (however, economies of scale of CF synthesis will also come into counterplay)

that's why i engineer bacteria to produce common precursors, so we (humans) can limit out fossil fuel consumption.

muu

It's in every bike mfg's interest to keep enthusiast parts expensive. Not going to see $200 wallyworld Schwinn CF bikes unless demand for it becomes mainstream. Ditto with components.

fietsbob

There is a labor component , and by shifting the manufacturing
to places where the labor is low paid, that is minimized..

of course that may suppress your ability to pay for it, with a drive to be competitive..
in the wage race to the bottom, by your company..

seems some people have found no name Carbon
from China sources and got a good price,
as an importer of 1 frame.

CommuteCommando

My first "ten speed" was a lower end Nishiki that my folks bought me in 1972. The price was $108+tax (only about 4 1/2% back then). IT had a welded steel frame, quick release wheels, and stem shifters.

Last year I bought a Masi Partenza (again the lower end of that line) for $700 at a LBS. It has an aluminum frame, Carbon Fork, indexing shifters, and nicer wheels than the Nishiki. (the Dealer threw those in-they were not stock)

Corrected for inflation, I'm sure the Masi is at, or a little below what the Nishiki was, and it is a nicer bike, in terms of advanced technology.

dscheidt

I'm well aware of what the synthesis of carbon fiber is. It's done that way because it's the cheapest way to do it, not because its' the only way. change the costs of the feed stock, and other methods become competitive. In any event, I'd worry more about running out of epoxy...

acidfast7

What non-petroleum based feed stock do you suggest for CF synthesis?

Burton

I checked out the specs before posting.

What might surprise you is the number of carbon fiber bars, brakes and other components that are currently marketed as carbon fiber and are actually alloy wrapped carbon fiber. Those aren't marketed or carried by WalMart, but you can probably find some at your local bike shop. Some LBS owners can't tell the difference themselves.

But just for the record - Walmart did market a full carbon fiber Ultegra equipped road bike a few years back. It didn't catch on. In spite of the fact that it came from the same assembly lines that produce frames branded for recognized bicycling companies - the WalMart stigma that infuses these forums convinced most people in advance that it couldn't possibly be worth buying.

https://www.walmart.com/catalog/produ...uct_id=5751048

But for some reason people seem overly eager to line up on the Internet to buy counterfit framesets of full carbon Pinarello Dogma just for the graphics and name. The quality control is crap. But everyone's an expert apparently - like the guy here who can't tell the difference between 'shipping weight' and 'actual weight'.

supernovae

None

Carbon is one of the most abundant elements in the known universe, in the top 6 if memory serves me correct.

When it comes to manufacturing "carbon fiber" components though you often need resins/mixes/polymers which are often oil based, but not necessarily in any short supply.. There is also a growing trend of researchers and organizations looking to utilize recycled materials for processing into carbon fiber but ironically in the end, if we make a huge switch to carbon fiber we don't yet have the technology to re-process all of that material efficiently for it to be recycled (which may be a good place to invest lol... long term that is)

acidfast7

:confused:

supernovae

Polymer is often petrochemical based right now because there is no shortage of supply being a byproduct of fuel refining. With that being said, even if petrochemical supplies diminish and diminish greatly, the demand for bio-polymers isn't nearly on the scale of alternative transportation energies and the efficiencies of bio-polymer are at more manageable and producable scales..

i'm no expect, i just bug my father who is a retired geophysicist and pick the brain of others.. and wikipidia is a great resource

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymer

dscheidt

First synthesis was done using rayon, I think. Certainly some is still made that way. Rayon is regenerated cellulose; the cellulose can come from any suitable source. Wood is most common, but cotton waste and bamboo are also common sources (as is rayon itself).

Really, if you want to mope about the end of petroleum, mope about things that actually require it.

coldfeet

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/santa-c...-test-lab.html

Recumbomatic

That's not a Walmart bike. To clarify my previous post, why would anyone make a cf Huffy/Murray frame and then rig it with a steel seatpost, steel brakes, steel hubs, etc. CF is not a good cheapest-possible solution.