Predictions about upcoming new bike tech
#126
Junior Member
@TricycleTom, I'd like to see one of those .... pretty freaking heavy and complex, and also expensive. The reason bikes can be (Can be) affordable is because they are simple. When you have the first prototype, we can have a much longer discussion.
https://microship.com/bob-stuart/
#127
Senior Member
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,410
Bikes: 2017 Specialized Allez Sprint Comp
Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 850 Post(s)
Liked 344 Times
in
247 Posts
Oo my turn. I think we'll see steering dampers within the next 20 years. We've been relying on geometry to stabilize the bike for a while now and MTBs especially are running up against how much stability can be squeezed out of geometry without ruining the fun. Especially true for gravel bikes that must be ridden in tight pelotons on road.
#128
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: location location
Posts: 3,036
Bikes: MBK Super Mirage 1991, CAAD10, Yuba Mundo Lux, and a Cannondale Criterium Single Speed
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 344 Post(s)
Liked 297 Times
in
207 Posts
I predict more and more OEM-sourced parts on bikes (and with that will come proprietary designs). It's already happening to some extent, but I think that in the future we (consumers will not have the ability to upgrade things like stems, seat posts, seats or handlebars unless it's a design made specifically for that bike (and therefore licensed by that manufacturer). These designs will continue to become more integrated into the frame and overall bike design.
This might extend to electronics as well. Rather than an aftermarket Garmin or Wahoo head unit attached to handlebars, bikes might come with an integrated screen built into the handlebar/stem design that connects to a smartphone and built-in wheel/cadence/power sensors on the bike.
I do also wonder if the era of being able to easily customize a bike by selecting a frameset, wheels, components, finishing kit, seat and handlebars all from various manufacturers may eventually come to an end, especially the designs of these parts become more integrated into the frame design. It's getting increasingly hard to find top tier bikes with standard seat posts, for instance. Companies like Specialized have already done this with wheels, seats, etc - will they take it a step further and develop their own S-works drivetrains? Will companies like this always rely on SRAM and Shimano to provide parts for their flagship products?
This might extend to electronics as well. Rather than an aftermarket Garmin or Wahoo head unit attached to handlebars, bikes might come with an integrated screen built into the handlebar/stem design that connects to a smartphone and built-in wheel/cadence/power sensors on the bike.
I do also wonder if the era of being able to easily customize a bike by selecting a frameset, wheels, components, finishing kit, seat and handlebars all from various manufacturers may eventually come to an end, especially the designs of these parts become more integrated into the frame design. It's getting increasingly hard to find top tier bikes with standard seat posts, for instance. Companies like Specialized have already done this with wheels, seats, etc - will they take it a step further and develop their own S-works drivetrains? Will companies like this always rely on SRAM and Shimano to provide parts for their flagship products?
To actually get into the business of brakes and gears, with intricate moving parts, would be a big investment for companies when they can just buy derailleurs and calipers and levers from Shimano or Tektro.
#130
Banned
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mississauga/Toronto, Ontario canada
Posts: 8,721
Bikes: I have 3 singlespeed/fixed gear bikes
Mentioned: 30 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4227 Post(s)
Liked 2,491 Times
in
1,286 Posts
100 years from now everything will be virtual reality. Nobody will ride outdoors. Physical activity will become extinct.
#131
Grupetto Bob
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Seattle-ish
Posts: 6,552
Bikes: Bikey McBike Face
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2743 Post(s)
Liked 6,096 Times
in
3,108 Posts
Tandem e-bikes
__________________
Road 🚴🏾♂️ & Mountain 🚵🏾♂️
Road 🚴🏾♂️ & Mountain 🚵🏾♂️
#132
Full Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: '16 StumpJ, Salsa Mukluk, Soulcycles SS, Dean Colonel HT, BMC FourstrokeTrail, Dean Torres CX, Santana Visa Tandem, Trek T2000 Tandem, Cupertino MTB Tandem, FreeAgent26"Xtracycle, Dirt Drop Dingle, Jamis Dragon Dingle, Airborne Skyhag SS, SSDean Cols
Posts: 220
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 70 Post(s)
Liked 116 Times
in
61 Posts
Oversized tubes with internal storage sounds like a bad idea from an engineering standpoint.
This requires larger access holes which creates stress concentrations (weak spots). The larger tube diameter will also stiffen the frame making for a harsh ride.
I'm imagining something similar to aircraft construction with access panels for service. Probably look ugly.
This requires larger access holes which creates stress concentrations (weak spots). The larger tube diameter will also stiffen the frame making for a harsh ride.
I'm imagining something similar to aircraft construction with access panels for service. Probably look ugly.
As one who owns and rides a 2106 Specialized Stumpjumper carbon frame with a storage area in the huge downtube, I have to say that that compartment goes unused.most of the time, although I do usually keep a spare inner tube in there.
Likes For Sorcerer:
#133
Newbie
Join Date: Jul 2021
Posts: 1
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Automatic gear shifting?
Now that the technology for measuring speed, ascent, power output and electronic shifting is commonplace, would there be a demand from less experienced riders (who DON’T want an e-bike) to have the bike make the decision for them?
It must be possible for software to take all the data and work out the most efficient gear choice using data from the power meter and gps and information about the particular rider.
maybe this already exists and I just haven’t heard of it?
It must be possible for software to take all the data and work out the most efficient gear choice using data from the power meter and gps and information about the particular rider.
maybe this already exists and I just haven’t heard of it?
#134
Newbie
Join Date: Oct 2021
Posts: 1
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times
in
0 Posts
Another thought
I’m not looking to start a debate about the pros and cons of specific novel features or of bike evolution generally. I’m just imagining what a state of the art bicycle might look like ten years from now, whether we feel good, bad, or indifferent about it.
Here’s what I think is coming (along with my prediction on each feature’s likelihood):
- (Very likely) Anti-lock brakes. Should be easy enough with everything going to hydraulic discs. You just need to add some wheel speed sensors, a computer, a little valve and motor on each caliper, and a power source. This might not be a totally pointless feature. Many will argue it’s a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist--perhaps that’s true. Regardless, I will be surprised if it does not appear in the next several years.
- (Probable) Tire pressure monitoring system. Also quite simple; would follow from technology used on cars for many years. They just need to develop smaller and lighter pressure sensor/transmitter units (probably located on the valve stem), and some software for the cycling computers/smart phones. You’ll never have to wonder how many PSI each tire has, or worry that you might not know when a tire suddenly begins to deflate.
- (Absolutely certain) Smaller, lighter, and more efficient motors for e-bikes. Plus smaller, lighter, and longer lasting batteries as well. Perhaps there will be solar charging on the bike (even something like photovoltaic paint, so the entire frame is effectively a solar panel?) And regenerative braking, so instead of working hard to build up kinetic energy and then throwing it away as friction, you could recover some of that energy to put back into the battery when slowing or stopping.
- (Possibly?) Rear-view camera and cockpit display (probably integrated with the cycling computer, which is already becoming more of a multi-functional display). Garmin Varia radar already gives an audible and visual indication, but it only shows that there is a vehicle (or two or more vehicles) approaching, with a relative indication of their distance and speed. A camera will let the rider remain facing forward and see a lot more detail. Is it a dump truck that’s weaving all over the road and flinging dirt and rocks everywhere? Just a Mini Cooper two lanes to the left? Technology to do this already exists and would just have to be refined/adapted for bikes.
- (Hopefully) Much better bike locks. Better = lighter and smaller but also tougher to defeat, while not becoming outrageously expensive. It seems like lock technology has not progressed very much in the past several decades. There have been little, incremental improvements, but a determined thief can still defeat any lock without much effort. I’d like to see high tech materials change this situation, so that the limiting factor will become “how strong is the structure you’re locking your bike to?”
What do you folks think? What predictions would you add to the list?
Here’s what I think is coming (along with my prediction on each feature’s likelihood):
- (Very likely) Anti-lock brakes. Should be easy enough with everything going to hydraulic discs. You just need to add some wheel speed sensors, a computer, a little valve and motor on each caliper, and a power source. This might not be a totally pointless feature. Many will argue it’s a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist--perhaps that’s true. Regardless, I will be surprised if it does not appear in the next several years.
- (Probable) Tire pressure monitoring system. Also quite simple; would follow from technology used on cars for many years. They just need to develop smaller and lighter pressure sensor/transmitter units (probably located on the valve stem), and some software for the cycling computers/smart phones. You’ll never have to wonder how many PSI each tire has, or worry that you might not know when a tire suddenly begins to deflate.
- (Absolutely certain) Smaller, lighter, and more efficient motors for e-bikes. Plus smaller, lighter, and longer lasting batteries as well. Perhaps there will be solar charging on the bike (even something like photovoltaic paint, so the entire frame is effectively a solar panel?) And regenerative braking, so instead of working hard to build up kinetic energy and then throwing it away as friction, you could recover some of that energy to put back into the battery when slowing or stopping.
- (Possibly?) Rear-view camera and cockpit display (probably integrated with the cycling computer, which is already becoming more of a multi-functional display). Garmin Varia radar already gives an audible and visual indication, but it only shows that there is a vehicle (or two or more vehicles) approaching, with a relative indication of their distance and speed. A camera will let the rider remain facing forward and see a lot more detail. Is it a dump truck that’s weaving all over the road and flinging dirt and rocks everywhere? Just a Mini Cooper two lanes to the left? Technology to do this already exists and would just have to be refined/adapted for bikes.
- (Hopefully) Much better bike locks. Better = lighter and smaller but also tougher to defeat, while not becoming outrageously expensive. It seems like lock technology has not progressed very much in the past several decades. There have been little, incremental improvements, but a determined thief can still defeat any lock without much effort. I’d like to see high tech materials change this situation, so that the limiting factor will become “how strong is the structure you’re locking your bike to?”
What do you folks think? What predictions would you add to the list?
DuncanC
#135
Advanced Slacker
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 6,228
Bikes: Soma Fog Cutter, Surly Wednesday, Canfielld Tilt
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2769 Post(s)
Liked 2,555 Times
in
1,439 Posts
Oo my turn. I think we'll see steering dampers within the next 20 years. We've been relying on geometry to stabilize the bike for a while now and MTBs especially are running up against how much stability can be squeezed out of geometry without ruining the fun. Especially true for gravel bikes that must be ridden in tight pelotons on road.
#136
Super-duper Genius
Thread Starter
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Muskrat Springs, Utah
Posts: 1,713
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 768 Post(s)
Liked 984 Times
in
508 Posts
The alert sound if detect danger behind is already here. It's called Garmin Varia, and it works very well. (I just got mine a few months ago, and I love it.) This will certainly become less expensive and more common in coming years--more integrated, too.
#137
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Highlands Ranch, CO
Posts: 1,221
Bikes: '13 Diamondback Hybrid Commuter, '17 Spec Roubaix Di2, '17 Spec Camber 29'er, '19 CDale Topstone Gravel
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 590 Post(s)
Liked 445 Times
in
260 Posts
Automobile style CVT drivetrain in the rear hub, which is also paired with a power/cadence meter to keep me at my perfect power output of 230 watts and at 90 rpm.
This will certainly help my knees out, since I find it hard to control myself when I get passed on the MUP and feel the need to chase down the rabbit at 700+ watts. With this setup, I believe I'd never be able to do more than 230 watts, nor mash at less than 90 rpm and blow my (already bad) knees out.
This will certainly help my knees out, since I find it hard to control myself when I get passed on the MUP and feel the need to chase down the rabbit at 700+ watts. With this setup, I believe I'd never be able to do more than 230 watts, nor mash at less than 90 rpm and blow my (already bad) knees out.
#138
hoppipola
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 424
Bikes: fausto coppi
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 512 Post(s)
Liked 228 Times
in
164 Posts
Automobile style CVT drivetrain in the rear hub, which is also paired with a power/cadence meter to keep me at my perfect power output of 230 watts and at 90 rpm.
This will certainly help my knees out, since I find it hard to control myself when I get passed on the MUP and feel the need to chase down the rabbit at 700+ watts. With this setup, I believe I'd never be able to do more than 230 watts, nor mash at less than 90 rpm and blow my (already bad) knees out.
This will certainly help my knees out, since I find it hard to control myself when I get passed on the MUP and feel the need to chase down the rabbit at 700+ watts. With this setup, I believe I'd never be able to do more than 230 watts, nor mash at less than 90 rpm and blow my (already bad) knees out.
Likes For holytrousers:
#139
Advanced Slacker
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 6,228
Bikes: Soma Fog Cutter, Surly Wednesday, Canfielld Tilt
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2769 Post(s)
Liked 2,555 Times
in
1,439 Posts
Automobile style CVT drivetrain in the rear hub, which is also paired with a power/cadence meter to keep me at my perfect power output of 230 watts and at 90 rpm.
This will certainly help my knees out, since I find it hard to control myself when I get passed on the MUP and feel the need to chase down the rabbit at 700+ watts. With this setup, I believe I'd never be able to do more than 230 watts, nor mash at less than 90 rpm and blow my (already bad) knees out.
This will certainly help my knees out, since I find it hard to control myself when I get passed on the MUP and feel the need to chase down the rabbit at 700+ watts. With this setup, I believe I'd never be able to do more than 230 watts, nor mash at less than 90 rpm and blow my (already bad) knees out.
#141
Advanced Slacker
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 6,228
Bikes: Soma Fog Cutter, Surly Wednesday, Canfielld Tilt
Mentioned: 26 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2769 Post(s)
Liked 2,555 Times
in
1,439 Posts
#142
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Scotland
Posts: 506
Bikes: Way too many
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 973 Post(s)
Liked 628 Times
in
377 Posts
I think the move is towards cleaner and lighter - wireless or drive by wire rather than cables, 1x with internal rear gearing, probably belt driven. More compliance on road bikes (because road bikers don't want "comfort"), and likely the introduce of adaptive suspension based on presumably speed / angle / gps. Integrated bespoke stuff will presumably be a lot more common too - no need to external lights, gps mounts or cameras.
Something like a steering lock built into a bike would be great too. Physical restraining locks can be easily overcome by anyone, but what use is a bike that needs parts replaced in order to steer it? Possible the same sort of thing with the drive train, if you need a key (physical or digital) in order to get the cranks to turn, then it doesn't really matter too much if you can steal the bike because you won't be able to sell it.
Something like a steering lock built into a bike would be great too. Physical restraining locks can be easily overcome by anyone, but what use is a bike that needs parts replaced in order to steer it? Possible the same sort of thing with the drive train, if you need a key (physical or digital) in order to get the cranks to turn, then it doesn't really matter too much if you can steal the bike because you won't be able to sell it.
#143
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Highlands Ranch, CO
Posts: 1,221
Bikes: '13 Diamondback Hybrid Commuter, '17 Spec Roubaix Di2, '17 Spec Camber 29'er, '19 CDale Topstone Gravel
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 590 Post(s)
Liked 445 Times
in
260 Posts
I knew manual CVT hubs existed, but I'm predicting a hub that can ALSO sense power and cadence and automatically adjust the CVT hub to keep everything between MY pre-specified cadence and power output thresholds, nothing above between 180-230 watts, and between 75-95 rpm, just for example (to match my requirements specifically).
#144
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Highlands Ranch, CO
Posts: 1,221
Bikes: '13 Diamondback Hybrid Commuter, '17 Spec Roubaix Di2, '17 Spec Camber 29'er, '19 CDale Topstone Gravel
Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 590 Post(s)
Liked 445 Times
in
260 Posts
#145
Full Member
This is for bike commuters.
Helmet with a camera in the back and a 1 square inch led screen right at the level of your forehead, integrated into the visor, so it doesn't obstruct your view.
When you want to cross a road, or change a lane.you peer upwards for a full rear view. No more guessing about a blind spot. Camera has a SD card that rolls over.
Helmet with a camera in the back and a 1 square inch led screen right at the level of your forehead, integrated into the visor, so it doesn't obstruct your view.
When you want to cross a road, or change a lane.you peer upwards for a full rear view. No more guessing about a blind spot. Camera has a SD card that rolls over.
#146
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: reno, nv
Posts: 2,336
Bikes: yes, i have one
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1155 Post(s)
Liked 1,198 Times
in
698 Posts
Maybe a bit silly but how about an automated pint ordering app that puts in an order when 100 meters from a pub. I can totally see the usefulness of this.
Likes For spelger:
#147
Junior Member
@TricycleTom, I'd like to see one of those .... pretty freaking heavy and complex, and also expensive. The reason bikes can be (Can be) affordable is because they are simple. When you have the first prototype, we can have a much longer discussion.
https://microship.com/bob-stuart/
Where's my much longer discussion?
#148
Grupetto Bob
Join Date: Sep 2020
Location: Seattle-ish
Posts: 6,552
Bikes: Bikey McBike Face
Mentioned: 4 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2743 Post(s)
Liked 6,096 Times
in
3,108 Posts
A helmet with a camera which projects onto a visor so one can keep their head down in the most aero position
__________________
Road 🚴🏾♂️ & Mountain 🚵🏾♂️
Road 🚴🏾♂️ & Mountain 🚵🏾♂️
#149
The Wheezing Geezer
Join Date: Oct 2021
Location: Española, NM
Posts: 1,127
Bikes: 1976 Fredo Speciale, Rivendell Clem Smith Jr., Libertas mixte
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 429 Post(s)
Liked 1,019 Times
in
483 Posts
When the number of seconds since 1970 can no longer be represented in 32 bits, on March 19, 2038, everybody's derailleur will stop working. Unless you've got a 64-bit bike...
#150
Senior Member
A 32-bit integer can count the number of seconds since 1970 out to the year 2106. The issue with 2038 is that the standard 32-bit time_t data type is implemented as a signed integer, which allows it to represent dates prior to 1970 (back into 1902), but essentially makes it a 31-bit integer for counting forward from 1970.