View Poll Results: Do weather forecasting sites hype up the chances of rain for clickbait?
Yes
16
45.71%
No
19
54.29%
Voters: 35. You may not vote on this poll
Do weather forecasting websites hype up the chances of rain for clickbait?
06-18-23, 04:45 PM
#1
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Do weather forecasting websites hype up the chances of rain for clickbait?
I've been using weather.com for a while now and it seems like they purposefully overestimate the chances of rain. I'm guessing this is because more people will go to their site and increase ad revenue if "bad weather" is approaching.
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
Anecdotally, if you have experienced this hyped-up chances of rain vote "Yes". If not, vote "No".
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
Anecdotally, if you have experienced this hyped-up chances of rain vote "Yes". If not, vote "No".
06-18-23, 05:11 PM
#2
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I've used the National Weather Service for decades. I can't think of why they'd fudge their forecasts, or why anybody else would have better information.
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06-18-23, 05:26 PM
#3
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Speaking of clickbait....
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06-18-23, 05:42 PM
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I use weather network for my local area where I live. They're pretty accurate at predicting temperatures, wind and chances of rain....however they're also extremely unreliable and inaccurate at predicting snowfalls and winter forecasts. Way too many times they have predicted some " significant winter weather event " or snowfall and nothing happened. I am always prepared during winter but I completely ignore their winter weather forecasts. News media just loves to hype people up..
06-18-23, 05:45 PM
#6
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I've been using weather.com for a while now and it seems like they purposefully overestimate the chances of rain. I'm guessing this is because more people will go to their site and increase ad revenue if "bad weather" is approaching.
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
Anecdotally, if you have experienced this hyped-up chances of rain vote "Yes". If not, vote "No".
Often based on the previous evening forecast for rain, I often chalk up the next day as a "no ride rain day" only to have it be clear and sunny.
Anecdotally, if you have experienced this hyped-up chances of rain vote "Yes". If not, vote "No".
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06-18-23, 06:29 PM
#7
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last couple weeks almost every forecast predicts rain and so far it has rained about everyday.....I wish they were wrong once and while.....I guess a couple of those days it said no precipitation but it ended up raining....
06-18-23, 07:13 PM
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Weatherbug seems to replicate what NOAA is saying, in my area. I actually find that NOAA is not specific as to hourly forecast, where WB is and often when NOAA is saying 50-60% rain, the WB hourly might not show that, and is often more accurate.
06-18-23, 07:27 PM
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No.
06-18-23, 09:12 PM
#10
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I've always used weather.gov (NOAA site). Its accurate enough for me. The only issue I have with it is no smartphone-specific app, although I can still call it up on a web search.
As for up-to-the-minute and point-source accuracy I've always looked at weather forecasting as a reasonably good guess. If the forecast says there's a good chance of rain on a specific day in my region, either morning, afternoon, evening, or overnight, that's good enough for me.
As for up-to-the-minute and point-source accuracy I've always looked at weather forecasting as a reasonably good guess. If the forecast says there's a good chance of rain on a specific day in my region, either morning, afternoon, evening, or overnight, that's good enough for me.
Last edited by skidder; 06-18-23 at 09:15 PM.
06-19-23, 05:42 AM
#11
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Did you ever read The Signal and the Noise, by Nate Silver? It's a little like Freakonomics.
Anyway, his findings agreed with the posters above, that the NWS predictions were fairly consistent wrt accuracy independent from the forecast, while local news weather tended to be more pessimistic regarding bad weather (rain, snow, etc.). In the book he theorized that the local news forecast is driven by economic forces (if people don't like the results of the forecasts, they'll go to another source), so it makes economic sense for local news weather to be pessimistic since people will bepissed annoyed if there's a "low" chance of rain (say, 30%) and it actually does rain (which it will, 3 times out of 10, if the forecast is accurate), whereas they'll be happy if there's a significant chance of rain (say, 60%) and it doesn't rain. The NWS, being publicly funded, is not subject to those economic forces and, therefore, can stick to the actual probabilities without "fudging".
Anyway, his findings agreed with the posters above, that the NWS predictions were fairly consistent wrt accuracy independent from the forecast, while local news weather tended to be more pessimistic regarding bad weather (rain, snow, etc.). In the book he theorized that the local news forecast is driven by economic forces (if people don't like the results of the forecasts, they'll go to another source), so it makes economic sense for local news weather to be pessimistic since people will be
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06-19-23, 05:56 AM
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To be fair I'd rather it predicted rain and was dry than it predicted dry and it rained. At least I'd be prepared.
06-19-23, 06:20 AM
#13
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I use Weather.com which I have found to be more accurate than Accuweather.com and others.
I myself haven't noticed this you speak of. In fact, I have found just as many times where rain wasn't predicted and showers came as vice versa.
Clickbait is one thing. The popup ads are getting increasingly annoying.
I myself haven't noticed this you speak of. In fact, I have found just as many times where rain wasn't predicted and showers came as vice versa.
Clickbait is one thing. The popup ads are getting increasingly annoying.
06-19-23, 06:41 AM
#14
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06-19-23, 06:53 AM
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Local TV news sensationalizes weather reports IMO because it lacks specificity. Example, rain in the valleys, what valleys? There are several in SoCal.
I'm most interested in radar and satellite info if rain is forecasted and do I have a window for a dry ride.
I'm most interested in radar and satellite info if rain is forecasted and do I have a window for a dry ride.
06-19-23, 07:12 AM
#16
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When the weather turns out to be a lot worse than predicted, the forecasters will be criticized, the converse, not so much. Thus there is a social pressure to err on the side of doom and destruction. As Herzlos put it, an error towards better weather is preferable to an error where the weather is worse than predicted.
But, as many people have observed, if you listen to the weather too much, you will never leave home.
But, as many people have observed, if you listen to the weather too much, you will never leave home.
06-19-23, 07:47 AM
#17
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I Just like today, they said it would be 70 percent rain from noon to 7 PM. It's 4:30 PM now, and I've yet to see rain. One could argue that 70 percent means 70 percent - it may or may not rain, but I feel that the kind of percentage is used by the forecasters to escape blame if it in fact doesn't rain.
So if the forecasting is reliable, then 3 out of 10 times they say 70% chance of rain it will not rain.
If there is any “blame” to be had, it is that people do not understand forecasting and probability.
06-19-23, 08:53 AM
#18
Senior Member
I use weather network for my local area where I live. They're pretty accurate at predicting temperatures, wind and chances of rain....however they're also extremely unreliable and inaccurate at predicting snowfalls and winter forecasts. Way too many times they have predicted some " significant winter weather event " or snowfall and nothing happened. I am always prepared during winter but I completely ignore their winter weather forecasts. News media just loves to hype people up..
06-19-23, 09:06 AM
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06-19-23, 09:10 AM
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Hype?
Hype is when the actual forecast is cloudy with a chance of showers, and they tell you to board up your windows for the hurricane force winds and hide in your safe room due to the tornadoes.
Hype is when the actual forecast is cloudy with a chance of showers, and they tell you to board up your windows for the hurricane force winds and hide in your safe room due to the tornadoes.
06-19-23, 09:10 AM
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I use the Weather widget on Android, which gets data from weather.com. I do see a lot of rain forecast these days that don't lead to actual rain. Just like today, they said it would be 70 percent rain from noon to 7 PM. It's 4:30 PM now, and I've yet to see rain. One could argue that 70 percent means 70 percent - it may or may not rain, but I feel that the kind of percentage is used by the forecasters to escape blame if it in fact doesn't rain.
The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) simply describes the probability that the forecast grid/point in question will receive at least 0.01" of rain. So, in this example, there is a 40 percent probability for at least 0.01" of rain at the specific forecast point of interest!
06-19-23, 09:13 AM
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IIRC 70% rain means 70% chance of rain some place in the forecast area, not 70% change of rain where your standing
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06-19-23, 09:17 AM
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06-19-23, 09:18 AM
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if you need explanation: post with aggressive premise, minimally related to cycling by a new member
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Life is too short not to ride the best bike you have, as much as you can
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06-19-23, 10:02 AM
#25
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